Dolphins vs Bills Odds: Who Is Favored To Win This AFC East Rivalry?

Fact Checked by Shannon Lane
Dolphins vs Bills Odds

Key Takeaways:

  • πŸ“… The first of two meetings between Miami and Buffalo will take place in Orchard Park, N.Y. at 1 p.m. ET on Oct. 1.
  • ⭐️ According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite in the AFC East matchup, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • 🏈 After going 1-1 in the regular season, the Bills ended the Dolphins' season with a 34-31 victory in the AFC Wild Card Round in January.

When it comes to the NFL, the AFC East should be one of the more interesting divisions for Florida sports betting. Aaron Rodgers signing with the New York Jets made the most headlines this offseason, but the division could ultimately come down to the head-to-head matchups between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills.

Dolphins vs Bills Odds: Who Is Favored To Win?

The Bills are currently a 3.5-point favorite in the Oct. 1 matchup vs. the Dolphins. To cover the spread, Buffalo must win by at least four points.

🏈 Point Spread3.5
πŸ“Š TotalN/A
πŸ’° MoneylineBUF -180, MIA +150
βœ… Data Last Verified by ExpertApril 10, 2024

Much can change between now and the start of the NFL season, but the Bills being an early favorite suggests that oddsmakers still see Buffalo as the superior team in the AFC East.

The over/under odds are not yet available, but expect it to be in the 50s when it is released. The average points per game in this matchup historically is 49.9, per DraftKings.

The two most recent meetings between the teams last season featured 61 (32-29 Bills on Dec. 18) and 65 total points (34-31 Bills in AFC East Wild Card game).

The Dolphins are listed at +150 to pull off the upset. Under those odds, a $10 bet on Miami to win would pay $15.

Latest Dolphins Bills Odds, Updates, & News

As the regular season approaches, here are the most notable 2023 developments that could affect the matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills:

  • πŸ“… July 28: Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey undergoes surgery for a meniscus tear suffered in training camp. Acquired in March in a trade from the Los Angeles Rams, Ramsey is expected to miss at least the first half of the season.
  • πŸ“… July 25: Bills RB/KR Nyheim Hines is placed on injured reserve for a season-ending knee injury suffered in a jet ski accident. Hines led the NFL in 2022 with two kickoff return touchdowns.
  • πŸ“… July 2023: The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills are both rumored to be in the mix for Pro Bowl RB Dalvin Cook.
  • πŸ“… April 27: Buffalo selects Utah TE Dalton Kincaid with the No. 25 overall pick in the NFL Draft. Kincaid was an All-Pac 12 performer for the Utes last season.
  • πŸ“… Jan. 15: Buffalo defeats Miami in the AFC Wild Card game, 34-31. Josh Allen passed for 352 yards and three touchdowns in the Bills victory.

Dolphins Bills Spread: What The Spread Tells Us

The current spread tells us that fans like Buffalo at home and are expecting another close game. The teams met three times last season with the total margin decided by just eight points. That included a pair of three-point victories for Buffalo in cold weather.

Dolphins Bills Line: What The Moneyline Tells Us

The moneyline suggests that the home-field advantage is very real for the Bills. Traveling to Orchard Park will be no small task for the Dolphins. They lost twice there last season. The Dolphins haven't topped the Bills at Highmark Stadium since Christmas Eve 2016 when it won in overtime, 34-31.

Miami Dolphins Chances To Win vs Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills have won the AFC East in each of the last three seasons, but last year's head-to-head matchups suggest that the Dolphins may not be far behind. 

After taking the first matchup in Miami, the Dolphins fell in the final two meetings in Buffalo by just three points each time, including in the playoffs. The Dolphins, however, led in the second half in each of the three meetings. 

For Miami, it will have the fortunate of playing in Orchard Park in early October this year rather than December or January.

How The Dolphins Win vs Bills

For the Dolphins to find a way to get over the hump and beat the Bills, they will need to find a way to get off the field defensively on third down. In three matchups last season, Buffalo went 28-for-48β€”good for 58.3%β€”on third down. Miami is hopeful that this will be a big area of improvement overall with new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

How The Bills Win vs Dolphins

For Buffalo to continue to get the better of Miami, it will need to find a way to keep Josh Allen upright. In three games against the Dolphins last season, Allen finished with 1,066 yards passing and nine touchdown passes.

Defensively, the Bills did have their struggles when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy for Miami. In two games against the Bills last season, Tagovailoa averaged a 113.9 passer rating with no interceptions.

Dolphins Bills Prop Bets

While more props, including over/under will be introduced as the game gets closer, there are some preseason props that could be decided during the two meetings between Miami and Buffalo. Below are some to pay attention to:

Dolphins Bills Player Props

πŸ† Josh Allen (Bills)+800 to win MVP (DraftKings)
πŸ† Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)+2200 to win MVP (DraftKings)
πŸ† Damar Hamlin (Bills)-285 to win Comeback Player (DraftKings)
πŸ† Mike McDaniel (Dolphins)+1800 to win Coach of the Year (BetMGM)
πŸ† Tyreek Hill (Dolphins)+2000 to win Offensive Player (DraftKings)
βœ… Data Last Verified by ExpertApril 10, 2024

The teams' two quarterbacks are currently in the top 10 when it comes to preseason MVP odds. Allen ranks third behind Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals while Tagovailoa ranks 10th. The two, however, have had very different trajectories health-wise with Tagovailoa missing 13 starts over the last two seasons and Allen starting every game since 2018.

Bills defensive back Damar Hamlin, who had to be resuscitated on the field in a game against Cincinnati last season, is the odds-on favorite to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year.

After ranking second in the NFL in receiving last year, Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill has the fifth-best odds to win Offensive Player of the Year.

Dolphins Bills Team Props

πŸ‘‘ Bills Super Bowl Odds+900
πŸ‘‘ Dolphins Super Bowl Odds+25
πŸ‘‘ Bills Odds to Win AFC+450
πŸ‘‘ Dolphins Odds to Win AFC+1200
πŸ‘‘ Bills Odds to Win AFC East+120
πŸ‘‘ Dolphins Odds to Win AFC East+300
βœ… Data Last Verified by ExpertApril 10, 2024

Both the Dolphins and Bills will enter the 2023 season with top-10 odds to win the Super Bowl. Buffalo's, however, are a little better. The Bills have the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl behind only the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles and second-best odds in the AFC. The Dolphins Super Bowl odds rank 10th odds, and they have the sixth-best odds to win the AFC.

While Buffalo is the favorite to win the AFC East, Miami (+300) has just the third-best odds in the four-team division behind the Bills and New York Jets (+270). The Dolphins playoff chances (52.4%) lag behind the Bills' (70.6%) as well.

History of Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills Games

For the early parts of the rivalry, the Dolphins dominated the Bills. That changed in the late 1980s and early 1990s in favor of Buffalo.

Over the six-year stretch from 1990 to 1995, the Bills eliminated the Dolphins from the playoffs three times before Miami got payback in 1998. Buffalo has won nine of the last 10 meetings and 11 of the last 13 in the series.

Dolphins Record vs Bills

Despite the Bills dominating in recent years, the Miami Dolphins hold a 62-56-1 record all-time against their rivals. During the 1970s, Miami went a perfect 20-0 against the Bills in the regular season. It is worth noting, however, that a 24-23 win for the Dolphins over the Bills was its closest margin of victory during the perfect 1972 season.

The fortunes swung toward Buffalo in the late 1980s as Marv Levy's team regularly got the better of the legendary Don Shula. Levy went a perfect 3-0 against Miami in the playoffs, which included victories in the 1990 AFC Divisional Round, the 1992 AFC Championship Game, and 1995 AFC Wild Card Round, the final game of Shula's Hall of Fame career.

The teams were an even 10-10 against one another during the 2000s, but the advantage has once again swung toward the Bills. The Dolphins have just two wins over the Bills since the start of the 2017 season. All three meetings last season were decided by three points or less. Prior to that, Buffalo had won seven of the previous eight meetings by double digits.

All-Time Best Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills Games

The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills have met 119 times over the years. Many of those contests came with much at stake. Here's a look back at some of the most memorable matchups between the teams.

Buffalo 38, Miami 35 (Overtime): Oct. 9, 1983

In the first career start for legendary Miami Dolphins quarterback Dan Marino, the rookie from Pittsburgh lived up the hype. Marino rallied Miami from an early 14-0 deficit to take a fourth quarter lead. Marino passed for 322 yards and three touchdowns, but as good as he was, Bills QB Joe Ferguson was a little better that day.

Ferguson passed for 419 yards and five touchdowns, including the game-tying score to Joe Cribbs with 23 seconds left. After Miami's Uwe von Schamann missed two game-winning field goal attempts in overtime, Joe Danelo ended the contest with a 36-yard make to give the Bills the victory.

Buffalo 44, Miami 34 (AFC Divisional Round): Jan. 12, 1991

In a matchup of the teams with the two best records in the AFC on a snow-covered field in Orchard Park, quarterbacks Dan Marino and Jim Kelly put on a show. Both future Hall of Fame signal callers passed for more than 300 yards and three touchdowns.

Buffalo raced to an early 20-3 lead, but Miami stormed back behind three Marino touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) to draw to within three early in the fourth quarter.

A late touchdown run from Thurman Thomas and a touchdown pass from Kelly to Andre Reed put the game away. The Bills would go on to reach the Super Bowl, but the Dolphins scored more points against Buffalo than any other opponent that season.

Miami 24, Buffalo 17 (AFC Wild Card Round): Jan. 2, 1999

The Dolphins and Bills have met in the playoffs five times, but the lone Miami victory came in the 1998 AFC Wild Card game. The Dolphins looked on their way to victory after Dan Marino's touchdown pass to Lamar Thomas pushed the lead to 24-14 in the fourth quarter, but the Bills were on the verge of tying the game following a field goal and successful onside kick.

With the ball at the Miami 5-yard-line and just 17 seconds to play, Trace Armstrong saved the day for the Dolphins with a strip sack of Bills quarterback Doug Flutie. Flutie passed for 360 yards, but a late fumble recovered by Miami's Shane Burton ultimately ended the Bills' season.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills FAQs:

Author

Mike Ferguson is a college football betting analyst for FloridaBet.com. Mike spends his days browsing the latest lines for all the top college football betting markets to find storylines curated specifically for sports bettors in Florida.

Cited by leading media organizations, such as: