Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Chances Week 4: Tracking the Bucs Playoff Picture

Fact Checked by Shannon Lane
Buccaneers Playoff Chances

Key Takeaways

  • 📉 The Bucs' playoff chances are 43.5%, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • ⭐️ The Buccaneers have a 23.8% chance to win the division, which ranks third in the NFC South.
  • 🏆 The Buccaneers' Super Bowl 58 odds are +8000, giving them a 1.2% chance to win, which are the fifth-longest odds in the NFC and 10th-longest in the NFL.

After a 2-0 start, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers suffered a loss to the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles, 25-11, in a game where the Bucs struggled to move the football. Sure, this was a game they were expected to lose, but after a 2-0 start, Bucs faithful likely expected a bit more out of quarterback Baker Mayfield. While Tampa Bay's defense did their best, it just wasn't enough and Bucs fans are hoping this isn't a continued regression.

Despite the loss, the Bucs' playoff chances actually improved from 42.6% to 43.5% and their chances of winning the division moved up to 23.8% from 20%. But, despite those improvements, the Bucs Super Bowl odds fell from +7000 to +8000 which now gives them the 10th longest odds in the NFL.

We will be updating the Bucs playoff chances and Bucs Super Bowl odds throughout the season, so make sure you check back regularly.

What are the Buccaneers Playoff Chances?

The Bucs playoff chances are 43.5%, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Prior to the season, the Bucs had just a 21.7% chance to make the playoffs - so their odds have doubled in just three games - a testament to their stout defense. Even with a loss to the Eagles, the Bucs chances improved from week three to four, so oddsmakers may have liked what they saw more than just the final score.

🔮 Bucs Playoff Chances43.5% Chance
Bucs Miss Playoffs56.5% Chance
🏆 Bucs Win Super Bowl1.2% Chance
👑 Bucs Win NFC2.2% Chance
💪 Bucs Win NFC South23.8% Chance
🔥 ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)-3.7 FPI (23rd)
📝 New York Times Postseason SimulatorNot Available Yet
Data Verified by ExpertSeptember 27, 2023

We based the chances of the Bucs making the playoffs, winning the Super Bowl, and more on implied probability. Implied probability takes the betting odds set by oddsmakers and converts them to a certain percentage of that event happening. Those odds are determined based on a player's or team's past performances, current roster make-up, schedule difficulty, injuries, and all other relevant information. Based on odds of +130 to make the playoffs, the Bucs have a 43.5% chance of qualifying to compete for the Lombardi Trophy.

Sitting at 2-1 through three weeks, the Bucs playoff odds continue to improve from the preseason, and while they still have long odds to win the division, both the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints lost last week, making the division lead a three-way heat. With no teams in the NFC South currently showing they are vastly better than the rest, the Bucs have just as much of an opportunity to win the NFC South as any - if they can figure out their rushing attack and limit Baker Mayfield's mistakes.

The Bucs sit with the 10th longest odds in the NFL to win the Super Bowl, dropping a spot from last week, which was a jump up from the fifth worst entering the season.

Buccaneers Week-by-Week Playoff Chances

Here, I'll update the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' weekly playoff chances so we can track how they are changing throughout the season.

WeekBucs Playoff Chances
Week 121.7%
Week 231.7%
Week 342.6%
Week 443.5%

Expectations for Tampa Bay were quite low with Tom Brady officially retiring and many wondering if the franchise would be better off going into a full-blown rebuild. After three weeks, however, the Buccaneers playoff odds continue to climb upward and now sit at 43.5%.

Buccaneers Schedule and Betting Lines

During the preseason, DraftKings had early spreads and moneyline available for all 17 of Tampa Bay's games. Since the season started, however, the sportsbook is only offering markets for the current and following week. The remaining lines you see here haven't been updated since prior to Week 1.

📅 Week 1 @ Minnesota Vikings (W 20-17)🏈 Buccaneers +6.5, ML +230
📅 Week 2 vs. Chicago Bears (W, 27-17)🏈 Buccaneers -3, ML 142
📅 Week 3 vs. PHI (L, 25-11)🏈 Buccaneers +5.5, ML +180
📅 Week 4 @ New Orleans Saints🏈 Buccaneers +3, ML +136
📅 Week 5🏈 BYE
📅 Week 6 vs. Detroit Lions🏈 Buccaneers +3.5, ML +155
📅 Week 7 vs. Atlanta Falcons🏈 Buccaneers +1, ML -105
📅 Week 8 @ BUF (Thursday Night Football)🏈 Buccaneers +10, ML +370
📅 Week 9 @ Houston Texans🏈 Buccaneers +1, ML -105
📅 Week 10 vs. Tennessee Titans🏈 Buccaneers +1, ML -105
📅 Week 11 @ San Francisco 49ers🏈 Buccaneers +7.5, ML +265
📅 Week 12 @ Indianapolis Colts🏈 Buccaneers +1, ML -105
📅 Week 13 vs. Carolina Panthers🏈 Buccaneers -1, ML -115
📅 Week 14 @ Atlanta Falcons🏈 Buccaneers +3, ML +140
📅 Week 15 @ Green Bay Packers🏈 Buccaneers +3.5, ML +145
📅 Week 16 vs. JAX (Christmas Eve)🏈 Buccaneers +3.5, ML +155
📅 Week 17 vs. NO (New Year's Eve)🏈 Buccaneers +1.5, ML +100
📅 Week 18 @ Carolina Panthers🏈 Buccaneers +2.5, ML +110
Data Verified by ExpertSeptember 27, 2023

Although the Bucs saw positive spread movement in their Week 3 game against the Eagles, bettors who backed Tampa Bay were left with a loss as Philadelphia easily covered on the road.

For the Week 4 matchup, the spread has slowly been trickling down as the Buccaneers originally opened as 4-point underdogs which is now down to 3 points. A positive result on the road against the Saints would be a rare one, as Tampa Bay is 3-7 in their last 10 matchups in New Orleans. They haven't fared much better against the spread, going just 4-6 in their last 10.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Chances: Key Offseason Updates September 2023

The Bucs are likely going to be in rebuilding mode and will have a number of major changes on the offensive side of the ball.

  • 📅 September 25: The Bucs are dealt their first loss of the season on Monday Night Football, as the Eagles win in Tampa Bay, 25-11.
  • 📅 September 17: Tampa Bay secures its second-straight victory to open the season, defeating the Chicago Bears 27-17.
  • 📅 September 10: The Buccaneers go on the road to Minnesota and steal a victory, 20-17.
  • 📅 June 15: The Bucs sign kicker Rodrigo Blakenship after cutting Ryan Succop earlier in the offseason.
  • 📆 June 13: LB Devin White reports for the start of Bucs' minicamp but does not participate.
  • 📅 June 1: Former Bucs QB Tom Brady confirms he's staying retired for good this offseason.
  • 📅 May 15: The Bucs sign WR David Moore.
  • 📅 April 29: Day 3 draft picks include Pittsburgh ILB SirVocea Dennis, Purdue TE Payne Durham, Kansas State DB Josh Hayes, Nebraska WR Trey Palmer and Eastern Michigan OLB Jose Ramirez.
  • 📆 April 28: The Bucs draft North Dakota OL Cody Maunch in the second round (No. 48) and Louisville OLB YaYa Diaby in the third round (No. 82) of the 2023 NFL Draft.
  • 📆 April 27: The Bucs draft Pittsburgh DL Calijah Kancey in the first round (No. 19) of the 2023 NFL Draft.
  • 📆 April 24: The team exercises the fifth-year team option on tackle Tristan Wirfs.
  • 📅 April 11: Pro Bowl and former 2019 first-round draft pick Devin White requests a trade. GM Jason Licht says later that week that the Bucs have no intention of trading White.
  • 📆 March 23: ILB Lavonte David is re-signed to a one-year contract, while kicker Ryan Succop is released.
  • 📅 March 17: The Bucs release TE Cam Brate and RB Leonard Fournette.
  • 📅 March 16: Former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield joins the Bucs on a one-year contract.
  • 📆 March 15: The Texans trade for Bucs starting guard Shaq Mason and a 2023 Round 7 pick.
  • 📅 Feb. 1: QB Tom Brady announces his retirement after 23 seasons, three of which were played with the Buccaneers.
  • 📅 Jan. 19: The Bucs part ways with offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, among other coaching assistants.

Bookmark this page, and we will consistently update it with the biggest updates throughout the season that could impact your betting chances.

Key Contributors Toward Bucs Playoff Chances

After three weeks of the 2023 season, the Bucs sit tied for the first in the NFC South with the Falcons and Saints - something most oddsmakers and, likely, fans did not expect. Their highly touted defense has shown up throughout the year, and while quarterback Baker Mayfield hasn't been particularly good, he has been serviceable enough throughout their two wins on the season.

The Bucs are still without much of a rushing attack, ranking 27th in the NFL, and Baker Mayfield still is a bit inconsistent, as we saw often in the Eagles vs. Bucs game on Monday Night Football. Running back Rachaad White only has 150 rushing yards through three games and their inability to break big plays through their rushing attack could be an Achilles Heel for their success this season.

The Bucs will still need to figure out how to score points if they want to continue to be successful this season as they have only scored 58 points this year while giving up 59 on defense.


Where Can I Bet on the Bucs to Make the Playoffs?

All major betting platforms allow you to bet on the Bucs making the playoffs, including operators like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars Sportsbook. Unfortunately for Bucs fans living in the state, Florida sports betting is still illegal. Hard Rock Bet did score a major legal victory recently, however, as a Washington DC Appeals Court refused to rehear the case that initially blocked legalized betting in Florida.

The Gaming Operators who sued the Department of Interior could still bring the matter to the Florida court system or to the United States Supreme Court, though, so this battle is far from over.

Looking Ahead: Bucs Playoff Picture

The Bucs playoff picture is improving, as noted in their positive odds movement since the start of the season. The question remains, do oddsmakers believe in the Bucs or do they have less belief in other teams in the NFC South? The Falcons are struggling on offense and the Saints, who were widely believed to be the best team in the NFC South, still have not gotten into a rhythm behind new quarterback Derek Carr.

At 2-1, and with a 43.6% chance to make the playoffs, the Bucs are still sitting in position to make some noise, especially if the NFC South continues to struggle. Last season, we saw the Bucs win the division with just an 8-9 record. Could this be another season where the team winning the division has right around a .500 record? If that does happen, there is a case to be made that the Bucs defense is strong enough to keep them in games and if Baker Mayfield can be a bit more consistent - the Bucs could do it again.

Do the Buccaneers Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

Yes, the Bucs have a chance to make the playoffs. Currently, every team has a chance to make the playoffs, and with a 2-1 record, the Bucs sit in the upper half of NFC teams to make the playoffs. Despite a loss to the Eagles, the Bucs actually improved their chances to make the playoffs.

Are the Buccaneers Out of the Playoffs?

No, the Bucs are not out of the playoffs and their chances to make the playoffs have increased to 43.5%, which is more than a 100% jump from where they started the season at +360.

Where Do the Buccaneers Rank in the NFC South?

The Bucs rank tied for first in the NFC South along with the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints at 2-1, and the Bucs chances of winning the NFC South has improved from week two to week four to nearly coin-flip odds at making the playoffs.

The division will still likely run through the New Orleans Saints, but their odds have dropped from +100 after week one to +125. Quarterback Derek Carr has not yet been the savior Saints fans were hoping for and despite being 2-1, just don't look like the dominant team that was expected. Sure, they are still the favorites, but certainly looking at the Saints it doesn't scream "likely Division winner!"

The Atlanta Falcons, still have the second-best odds to win the NFC South, with a 37.7% chance of winning the division, but again, the Falcons have struggled mightily on offense and struggle to get the ball to their playmakers.

And finally, the Carolina Panthers, who are 0-3, have just a 2.8% chance of winning the NFC South, and even that might be generous. They are struggling behind new quarterback Bryce Young, and despite a strong defense, they have been unable to move the ball and score. Could we on 0-17 watch with Carolina?

Where Do the Buccaneers Rank in the NFC Standings?

The Bucs are tied for third in the NFC, with seven other teams, with a 2-1 record, and are in a three-way tie for first in the NFC South. The Bucs still have just a 43.5% chance of making the playoffs despite their record.

This weeks game against the New Orleans Saints, a division rival, could help paint the picture of the Bucs chances of winning the division, which is likely the only way an NFC South team will make the playoffs.

Where Do the Buccaneers Rank in the NFC Wild Card Race?

After starting 2-1, the Bucs are firmly in playoff contention, but that has a major asterisk as there are ten total NFC teams with a 2-1 record or better. However, their odds of making the playoffs and winning the division have improved week over week, which in turn puts them in a better position to win a Wild Card spot.

As more games are played, playoff contention will become clearer, including where each team, including Tampa Bay, fares in the NFC Wild Card race.

Can the Buccaneers Get the No. 1 Seed?

Yes, the Bucs can still get the No. 1 seed. In fact, the Bucs are ranked just one game back of the NFC Lead (along with seven other NFC teams) However, the Bucs still have very long odds of winning the division and making the playoffs, it will be a tough road for the Bucs to claim the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. With powerhouse teams like the reigning NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles, whom they just lost to, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Dallas Cowboys, it would be a monumental feat for the Bucs to compete and one of the biggest Cinderella stories in recent history.

Who to Root for if You're a Buccaneers Fan

If you are a Buccaneers fan, you want to continue to root against the NFC South, especially the Falcons and Saints, as they have much stronger odds to win the division. With an upcoming NFC South matchup against the Saints, the Bucs need to win this game to solidify their chances of having an opportunity. The Bucs still have a tough schedule ahead, so winning now, allows for a bit more margin of error.

Buccaneers Postseason Outlook and Predictions

The Bucs odds to begin the season didn't look great, but they are getting better and the offense is performing slightly better than expected.

The Bucs looked much better on offense against the Bears than they did against the Vikings, with the Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans connection starting to improve.

While it is tough to glean much out of two weeks of football, Bucs fans should be proud of their offensive performance with the number of changes that were made on offense. Sure, they'd like to see their running back performance improve, but small improvements each week are what the Bucs faithful want.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoffs FAQs


Dan Thompson is a Lead Betting Analyst for FloridaBet.com. Dan's unique experience makes him the perfect fit to find the latest storylines and interesting betting angles impacting Florida sports betting.

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