Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Chances Week 11: Tracking the Bucs Playoff Picture

Fact Checked by Shannon Lane
Buccaneers Playoff Chances

Key Takeaways

  • 📉 The Bucs' playoff chances are 39.2%, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • 👎 Among NFC teams, only seven teams have lower playoff chances than the Buccaneers.
  • ⭐️ Tampa Bay has a 26.7% chance to win the division, which ranks third in the NFC South.

Tampa Bay, after four consecutive losses, are finally back in the win column and they won their "must-win game" over the Tennesee Titans 20-6. After moving to 4-5, the Bucs' chance to make the playoffs and win the NFC South increased drastically.

The Bucs will face off against the San Francisco 49ers this week, who just beat down the Jacksonville Jaguars. In a game that looks to be a very tough match-up for Tampa Bay, the Bucs can potentially afford to drop this game, but will then need to go at least 4-2 to end the season and potentially look to make the playoffs as they still have four more NFC South games.

While the Bucs win was impressive, they are still on the wrong side of the playoff race and are still in do-or-die time.

We will be updating the Bucs playoff chances throughout the season, so make sure you bookmark this page and check back regularly.

What are the Buccaneers Playoff Chances?

The Bucs playoff chances are 39.2%, based on odds of +155 from Hard Rock Bet. The table below details the Buccaneers' playoff chances as well as the implied probability of other postseason events along with additional data points to describe Tampa Bay's playoff picture.

🔮 Bucs Playoff Chances39.2% Chance
Bucs Miss Playoffs60.8% Chance
🏆 Bucs Win Super Bowl0.7% Chance
👑 Bucs Win NFC1.3% Chance
💪 Bucs Win NFC South26.7% Chance
🔥 ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)-1.5 FPI (19th)
📝 New York Times Postseason Simulator32%
Data Verified by ExpertNovember 29, 2023

We based the chances of the Bucs making the playoffs, winning the Super Bowl, and more on implied probability. Implied probability takes the betting odds set by oddsmakers and converts them to a certain percentage of that event happening. Those odds are determined based on a player's or team's past performances, current roster make-up, schedule difficulty, injuries, and all other relevant information. 

The Bucs' playoff chances rose by 37% after their win against Tennessee and their chances of winning the NFC South rose from 14.3% to 26.7% as the NFC South continues to underperform, although they still rank third in the division to win (despite having the second best odds of making the playoffs).

Super Bowl odds for Tampa Bay also stayed steady at their lowest of any point this season at +15000, or just a 0.7% chance.

Buccaneers Week-by-Week Playoff Chances

Here, I'll update the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' weekly playoff chances so we can track how they are changing throughout the season.

WeekBucs Playoff Chances
Week 121.7%
Week 231.7%
Week 342.6%
Week 443.5%
Week 557.4%
Week 654.5%
Week 750%
Week 842.6%
Week 933.3%
Week 1028.6%
Week 1129.2%

After five weeks of seeing their odds drop, the Bucs climbed back up and moved to their highest point since Week 8. The Bucs have a 4-5 record and sit a half game behind the Saints at 5-5. The Buccaneers have four more NFC South games remaining, including two against the Carolina Panthers who are just 1-8 on the season. The Saints are still the current favorites to win the NFC South at -125, which those odds have moved in the wrong direction from -165 last week.

The Bucs' defense showed back up against the Titans allowing just six points and for all intents and purposes had one of their best showings of the year. The Bucs offense still struggled and at one point the "boo birds" were out for quarterback Baker Mayfield in the first quarter after an overthrow of wide receiver Mike Evans.

With Tampa Bay heading to San Francisco, the Bucs still have a lot of questions on offense and the 49ers will bring a very strong defense to battle Baker Mayfield. And on the opposite side of the field, the 49ers and running back Christian McCaffrey will likely give the Bucs defense their toughest struggle of the season. This game will likely not be a close game and the 49ers should cruise to victory.

However, after beating the Titans last week this game is not as much of a "must win" as it would have been should they have lost. They still only sit a half game out of the division lead and while the Saints and Falcons sputter, the Bucs can afford another loss or two.

Do the Buccaneers Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

Yes, the Bucs have a chance to make the playoffs. Currently, every team has a chance to make the playoffs, and with a 4-5 record, and a 39.2% chance, the Bucs sit with an outside chance of making the playoffs. Tampa Bay's odds of making the playoffs have finally increased after five straight weeks of decreasing odds.

Are the Buccaneers Out of the Playoffs?

No, the Bucs are not out of the playoffs but still sit on the wrong side of the playoff race with just a 39.2% chance of competing in the playoffs for their fourth consecutive season. The Bucs' odds increased from +250 to +155 after their win against the Titans - a drastic improvement from +360 where they began the season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Chances: Key Updates November 2023

Below, I'll track all of the most important pieces of news and updates impacting the Buccaneers' playoff chances.

  • 📅 November 7: Guard Matt Feiler and Defensive End Logan Hall are still listed as OUT and did not practice last week.
  • 📅 November 5: Tampa Bay loses their fourth-straight game, this time in heartbreaking fashion to the Texans, 39-37.
  • 📅 October 31: Defensive Tackle Vita Vea has not practiced this week and is listed as questionable this week. Safety Kaevon Merriweather and guard Matt Feiler are listed as out. Quarterback Baker Mayfield missed was limited in practice early in the week and is listed as questionable, but should play.
  • 📅 October 24: Linebacker Anthony Nelson and defensive tackle Vita Vea are listed as questionable heading into their matchup against the Buffalo Bills.
  • 📅 October 23: The Bucs are now 1-3 in their last four games following their loss to the Atlanta Falcons.
  • 📅 October 15: Tampa Bay falls to the red-hot Detroit Lions 20-6 after they failed to get anything going offensively. 
  • 📅 October 10: The Bucs injury report no longer includes Mike Evans, but still lists cornerback Derrek Pitts, Calijah Kancy, Jamel Dean, and SirVocea Dennis.
  • 📅 October 1: Wide Receiver Mike Evans suffered a minor hamstring injury - he is expected to recover during their bye week and be ready for week six against the Detroit Lions
  • 📅 October 1: First-round draft pick Calijah Clancy is still dealing with a calf injury. A week six return is expected.
  • 📅 September 25: The Bucs are dealt their first loss of the season on Monday Night Football, as the Eagles win in Tampa Bay, 25-11.
  • 📅 September 17: Tampa Bay secures its second-straight victory to open the season, defeating the Chicago Bears 27-17.
  • 📅 September 10: The Buccaneers go on the road to Minnesota and steal a victory, 20-17.

Bookmark this page, and we will consistently update it with the biggest updates throughout the season that could impact your betting chances.

Key Contributors Toward Bucs Playoff Chances

The Bucs offense is still struggling and only scored 20 points, which moved them to lowest third of the NFL in scoring per game, and patience in quarterback Baker Mayfield was at its lowest point on Sunday afternoon from fans. While I do not expect the Bucs to make a move off of Mayfield now, you have to wonder how quickly he would last should the Bucs no longer be in contention for the playoffs. Wide receiver Mike Evans had a great game against Tennessee and running back Rachaad White had a few big plays, which the Bucs have desperately needed.

On defense, the Bucs continue to rank statistically above average and, sometimes, near the top of the NFL. Lavonte David, Devin White, and Vita Vea are anchoring the defense, who have played some very strong offenses this season, but will face their toughest test of the season against the 49ers.

The Bucs will need to see both the offense and defense click for numerous games in a row before any sort of confidence is instilled back in Tampa Bay.

Where Can I Bet on the Bucs to Make the Playoffs?

As of November 7, Hard Rock Bet is allowing mobile betting for Florida residents for those who previously bet with Hard Rock in Florida two years ago and qualifying Unity by Hard Rock loyalty members. How long this will last is up in the air after those opposing the Florida-Seminole Gaming Compact asked the state supreme court to immediately suspend the app until the legal battle is resolved. If the Florida Supreme Court sides with Flagler Associates, Hard Rock Bet will once again be restricted and mobile betting will go away.

Additionally, the Seminole Tribe also announced in-person betting at Florida Hard Rock Casinos will begin on December 7.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Picture and Predictions

After 10 weeks of the 2023 season, the Bucs sit a half-game out of first place in the NFC South at 4-5, with the Saints leading the division at 5-5. Right now, the Bucs' best chance to make the playoffs is by winning the division as the wild card race features teams with much better records.

After losing four in a row, the Bucs win against the Titans gave a glimmer of hope to the Bucs faithful and while the NFC South continues to struggle, the Bucs could find a way to sneak into their fourth straight playoffs by winning the division. However, should that not happen (and the Bucs have four division games left), do not expect the Bucs to have a good enough record to make the playoffs.

The Bucs will need to win against the Titans, sweep the Panthers, beat the Falcons, Saints, and Packers, and hope for a win over the Jaguars or 49ers, and they could see themselves competing in their fourth straight playoff race.

Odds of that happening? Well, Lloyd Christmas in Dumb and Dumber likely had better chances with Mary Swanson.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoffs FAQs


Dan Thompson is a Lead Betting Analyst for FloridaBet.com. Dan's unique experience makes him the perfect fit to find the latest storylines and interesting betting angles impacting Florida sports betting.

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