Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances Week 17: Tracking the Dolphins Playoff Picture

Fact Checked by Jeremy Botter
Tua Tagovailoa at Training Camp

Key Takeaways:

  • πŸ“Š The Dolphins' playoff chances are clinched following their win over Dallas in Week 16.
  • πŸ“ˆ Miami's odds to win the AFC are +350, the second-shortest odds in the conference.
  • ⭐️ The Dolphins have a 77.8% chance to win the AFC East division.

Miami is officially a proven contender as we enter 2024. Following a win over the Cowboys in primetime on Christmas Eve, the Dolphins clinched their playoff chances, guaranteeing them at least a spot in the Wild Card. Of course, with an 11-4 record and only two games left, Miami is focused on securing home-field advantage as the No. 2 seed. 

The Dolphins still have a chance at the No. 1 seed, but sit a game behind the Ravens, who they face on New Year's Eve in Week 17. If Baltimore wins, they secure the one-seed; meanwhile, if Miami wins out, they'll earn the AFC's top seed and get the Golden Goose of the NFL Playoffs: A bye week.

Throughout the season, I've updated this page more than once weekly to provide you with the latest odds on the Miami Dolphins. Bookmark this page and stay tuned throughout the postseason.

πŸ—£οΈ Dolphins vs Jets Odds

Must be 18+ to participate. T&Cs Apply.
Must be 18+ to participate. T&Cs apply.

What are the Dolphins Playoff Chances?

The Dolphins' playoff chances are secured after a Week 17 win over Dallas. Now, they shift their focus to winning the division and Miami has a 77.8% chance to win the AFC East, according to odds from Hard Rock Bet. Additionally, the Dolphins have the second-shortest odds to win the AFC Conference, trailing only Baltimore.

Below is a chart looking at the latest odds and data points related to the Dolphins' playoff picture, which I will update each week as the odds change.

⭐ Dolphins Playoff ChancesN/A (clinched)
❌ Dolphins Miss PlayoffsN/A (clinched)
πŸ† Dolphins Win Super Bowl11.8% Chance
πŸ‘‘ Dolphins Win AFC23.3% Chance
πŸ”₯ Dolphins Win AFC East77.8% Chance
πŸ’ͺ ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)7.8 FPI (5th)
πŸ“Š New York Times Postseason Simulator100%
βœ… Data Verified by ExpertMay 22, 2024

Following the monstrous win over Dallas, the Dolphins are officially recognized as contenders in the NFL's media landscape. However, oddsmakers have backed Miami all season, often placing them in the AFC's top-three despite a signature win. Now, following their best win of the season, sportsbooks are permanently recognizing them as what they've become: The second-best team in the conference. Of course, Baltimore is America's favorite team right now and, following a road demolition of the perceived juggernaut 49ers, they're the odds favorite to win the AFC. Still, with two games remaining against two of the league's best teams in the Ravens and Bills, each with massive postseason implications, all eyes are on Mike McDaniel's team. Because, suddenly, a win this week will catapult the Dolphins' Super Bowl odds from contenders to favorites.

As of right now, the Dolphins have the second-shortest odds to win the AFC and the third-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl at +750, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. That means oddsmakers like Miami more than Philadelphia (+850), Kansas City (+900), and Dallas (+1100). Still, there's a lot of distance between the obvious favorites – San Francisco (+220) and Baltimore (+450) – and the rest of the league.

Dolphins Week-by-Week Playoff Chances

We updated you weekly with the Dolphins' playoff chances throughout the season. Now that Miami has clinched, take a look at how they got there in the table below.

WeekDolphins Playoff Chances 
Week 1     52.4% (-110)
Week 269.3% (-225)
Week 381% (-425)
Week 490% (-900)
Week 585.7% (-600)
Week 690% (-1000)
Week 793.3% (-1400)
Week 890.9% (-1000)
Week 994.3% (-1600)
Week 1090% (-900)
Week 1193.3% (-1400)
Week 1297.6% (-4000)
Week 1399.5% (-20000)
Week 1499.5% (-20000)
Week 1599% (-10000)
Week 1699% (-10000)
Week 17100% (Clinched)

For 16 weeks, the Dolphins made it clear they are built for the NFL Playoffs this season.

Do the Dolphins Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

Yes, the Dolphins clinched their NFL Playoffs berth with a win over the Cowboys in Week 16. Now, Miami is dead set on defeating Baltimore to gain control of the No. 1 seed in the AFC. If they win out, they will not only get a home-field advantage but a first-week bye as well.

Are the Dolphins Out of the Playoffs?

No, the Dolphins are not out of the playoffs. In fact, Miami clinched a berth to the NFL Playoffs last week, guaranteeing them at least a Wild Card spot. Still, they have one of the toughest remaining schedules in the NFL with games at Baltimore and home against Buffalo to close the season. Regardless of the outcome of those games, they will make the postseason.

Dolphins Playoff Chances: Key Updates May 2024

After a promising start, the Miami Dolphins have big hopes for the 2023 season. Along the way, big moments will define how far Mike McDaniel's team goes.

Below, I will provide daily updates throughout the season:

  • πŸ“…Dec. 24, 2023: The Dolphins clinch! With a 22-20 win at home in Hard Rock Stadium over the NFC's best team, the Cowboys, Miami punched their ticket to the 2023 NFL Playoffs.
  • πŸ“…Dec. 11, 2023: The team's C Connor Williams, an impactful member of the Dolphins' offensive line, suffered an ACL tear in a 28-27 loss to the Tennessee Titans. Williams' season is over.
  • πŸ“… Dec. 3, 2023: The Miami Dolphins defeat the Washington Commanders to clinch a fourth straight winning season, 45-15.
  • πŸ“… Nov. 27, 2023: Signed DE Jason Pierre-Paul off the New Orleans Saints practice squad. Pierre-Paul is a three-time Pro Bowl selection for the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
  • πŸ“… Nov. 23, 2023: EDGE Jaelen Phillips suffered a season-ending Achilles injury late in the Dolphins' 34-13 win over the New York Jets.
  • πŸ“… Nov. 13, 2023: Rookie RB De'Von Achane returns from injured reserve. For the season, Achane has 527 total yards and eight total touchdowns.
  • πŸ“… Nov. 5, 2023: The Dolphins pick up their third loss of the season, falling to the Chiefs in Germany.
  • πŸ“… Oct. 29, 2023: CB Jalen Ramsey recorded an interception in his Miami Dolphins debut. The pick helped thwart a scoring drive in a 31-17 win over the New England Patriots.
  • πŸ“… Oct. 18, 2023: CB Jalen Ramsey returned to practice after suffering a meniscus tear in the preseason. Ramsey could make his Dolphins debut at some point in November.
  • πŸ“… Oct. 15, 2023: Raheem Mostert posts his third multi-touchdown game of the season, helping the Dolphins beat Carolina 42-21.
  • πŸ“… Oct. 10, 2023: Rookie RB De'Von Achane will miss several weeks with a knee injury. Achane leads the Dolphins with 460 rushing yards and ranks second on the team with seven total touchdowns.
  • πŸ“… Oct. 8, 2023: With a 31-16 win over the New York Giants and a 25-20 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars by the Buffalo Bills, the Dolphins reclaimed sole possession of first place in the AFC East.
  • πŸ“… Oct. 6, 2023: Dolphins place T Terron Armstead on injured reserve following a injury sustained in a loss to the Buffalo Bills.
  • πŸ“… Oct. 1, 2023: The Miami Dolphins fell to the Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park by a 48-20 score. With the loss, the Dolphins and Bills are now tied atop the AFC East with each owning 3-1 records.
  • πŸ“… Sept. 25, 2023: The Miami Dolphins set a franchise record with 70 points in a win over the Denver Broncos -- the most for an NFL team since 1966. With the Baltimore Ravens' loss to the Indianapolis Colts, Miami is the last remaining undefeated team in the AFC.

As Miami continues to move throughout the 2023-2024 season, this section will be updated. Be sure to bookmark this page and check back often.

Key Contributors Toward Dolphins Playoff Chances

With wide receiver Tyreek Hill (+105 to win Offensive Player of the Year) nursing an injury this week, Tua Tagovailoa (+2500 to win MVP) shined at quarterback. Jaylen Waddle was filling the large void left by Hill, finishing the game with eight catches for 142 yards and a score in the 30-0 win over the New York Jets. Those might be the three biggest pieces for the Miami offense moving forward, but that's not the end of Miami's talented skill players.

Running back Raheem Mostert (+15000 to win Offensive Player of the Year) set a team record for touchdowns in a season in Sunday's win over the Jets. With two scores, Mostert eclipsed Mark Clayton's team mark and Ricky Williams' team rushing record. The Dolphins were also fortunate enough to have Terron Armstead back along the offensive line. De'Von Achane (+10000 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year), a rookie running back, will be an important player over the final three weeks.

Despite being without key players such as Jevon Holland and Xavien Howard, the Miami defense shined this past week. Bradley Chubb (+10000 to win Defensive Player of the Year) had the best game of his tenure as a Dolphin while Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler also had strong efforts as Miami yielded just 103 yards as a team. Miami has been a different defense since cornerback Jalen Ramsey returned from injury.

Where Can I Bet on the Dolphins to Make the Playoffs?

Thanks to the positive court rulings, Hard Rock Bet decided to launch in a limited capacity on Nov. 7. Now, it is available to everyone. The Seminole Tribe also allows in-person betting at the six casinos it owns and operates. That will happen this month.

Flagler Associates' move, asking the court to immediately suspend the app until the case is fully resolved, has been struck down, but it did get an extension until February to file a petition with the U.S. Supreme Court that would require sports betting in Florida to be passed by a referendum vote, which requires approval from 60% of the public.

Miami Dolphins Playoff Picture and Predictions

The Miami Dolphins can clinch a playoff berth and the AFC East as early as this week. The Dolphins need only a victory over the Dallas Cowboys to clinch a spot in the postseason. If the Los Angeles Chargers were somehow able to beat the Buffalo Bills on Saturday night, Miami would win the division with a victory over Dallas.

Currently a game back of the Baltimore Ravens, the Dolphins would be the No. 2 seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today. Miami holds a two-game lead over the Bills in the AFC East, but Buffalo won the first meeting in Orchard Park and the teams will square off again in the regular season finale on Jan. 7.

If the playoff started today, the Dolphins would be playing host to the Indianapolis Colts. Miami, however, controls its own destiny for the top spot in the conference and the lone first-round bye. With three straight wins to close the regular season, the Dolphins would finish 13-4 and as the top seed in the AFC for the first time since 1985.

Miami Dolphins Playoffs FAQs

Author

Mike Ferguson is a college football betting analyst for FloridaBet.com. Mike spends his days browsing the latest lines for all the top college football betting markets to find storylines curated specifically for sports bettors in Florida.

Cited by leading media organizations, such as: