Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances Week 3: Tracking the Dolphins Playoff Picture

Fact Checked by Jeremy Botter
Tua Tagovailoa at Training Camp

Key Takeaways:

  • 📊 The Dolphins' playoff chances are 81%, according to DraftKings Sportsbook -- a jump from 69.3% last week.
  • ⭐️ The Dolphins still have a 51.2% chance to win the division. That's an increase from 42.6% last week.
  • 🏆 The Dolphins' Super Bowl XLVIII odds are +1300, giving them a 7.1% chance to take home the Vince Lombardi Trophy. The Dolphins were listed at +1500 last week, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

It took just two weeks for the Miami Dolphins to assume sole possession of first place in the AFC East. The Dolphins picked up a second straight road win on Sunday night by holding off the New England Patriots, 24-17. In a contest that could prove pivotal to the AFC East and playoff race, the Dolphins earned their fifth victory over New England in seven tries.

With the win, Miami's playoff odds again trended in the right direction. Last week, Miami was listed at -225 to make the playoffs. With Sunday night's win, the Dolphins are now listed at -425, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, to make the postseason. Using implied probability, that's a jump from 69.3% to 81%.

With the 2-0 start, Miami remains the favorite to win the AFC East. The Dolphins also now own top-six Super Bowl odds in the NFL at +1300. In the AFC, the Dolphins have the third-best odds to make it to Las Vegas.

What are the Dolphins Playoff Chances?

The Dolphins' playoff chances are 81%, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Dolphins hold the third-best playoff odds among AFC teams. 

Below is a chart looking at the latest odds, which I will update as the odds change.

Dolphins Playoff Chances81% Chance
Dolphins Miss Playoffs19% Chance
🏆 Dolphins Win Super Bowl7.1% Chance
👑 Dolphins Win AFC14.3% Chance
🔥 Dolphins Win AFC East51.2% Chance
📊 New York Times Postseason SimulatorNot Available Yet
💪 ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)5.5 FPI (5th in NFL)
Data Verified by ExpertSeptember 27, 2023

Odds-wise, the Miami Dolphins continue their climb following a 2-0 start. The Dolphins now have an 81% chance to make the playoffs, per DraftKings Sportsbook. Miami's odds rose from -225 to -425 following Sunday night's win in Foxborough. Among AFC teams, only the Kansas City Chiefs currently have better odds to make the playoffs.

The Dolphins also remained the favorite in the AFC East by a narrow margin. Miami is listed at +105, slightly ahead of the Buffalo Bills (+110). The Dolphins, however, are behind the Bills and Chiefs when it comes to odds to win the AFC and the Super Bowl. Miami has the sixth-best Super Bowl odds behind the Chiefs, Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Dallas Cowboys.

The New York Times Postseason Simulator has yet to be released, but the Dolphins remain fifth in ESPN's Football Power Index. They did increase from 4.6 to 5.5 but remain behind Dallas, Buffalo, Kansas City, and San Francisco.

Dolphins Week-by-Week Playoff Chances

Miami currently sits with -425 odds to make the playoffs, per DraftKings, but that will ebb and flow as the season approaches and progresses. We will update the Dolphins' playoff chances throughout the course of the season.

As the season goes along, the chart will show how the odds have changed when it comes to Miami's goal of making the playoffs. The Dolphins are coming off a 24-17 road win over the New England Patriots. The Dolphins will play their home opener on Sunday against the 0-2 Denver Broncos.

WeekDolphins Playoff Chances
Week 1     52.4% (-110)
Week 269.3% (-225)
Week 381% (-425)

Dolphins 2023-2024 Schedule and Betting Lines

Below is a look at the point spread and money line for each of the Dolphins' 17 regular season games in 2023. These lines will change throughout the season, especially the odds later in the year.

📅 Week 1 @ Los Angeles Chargers (W, 36-34)🏈 Dolphins +3, ML +140
📅 Week 2 @ New England Patriots (W, 24-17)🏈 Dolphins -2.5, ML -130
📅 Week 3 vs. Denver Broncos🏈 Dolphins -6, ML -270
📅 Week 4 @ Buffalo Bills🏈 Dolphins +3.5, ML +150
📅 Week 5 vs. New York Giants🏈 Dolphins -4.5, ML -198
📅 Week 6 vs. Carolina Panthers🏈 Dolphins -7, ML -290
📅 Week 7 @ PHI (Sunday Night Football)🏈 Dolphins +4, ML +160
📅 Week 8 vs. New England Patriots🏈 Dolphins -4, ML -185
📅 Week 9 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Germany)🏈 Dolphins +4.5, ML +170
📅 Week 10🏈 BYE
📅 Week 11 vs. Las Vegas Raiders🏈 Dolphins -5.5, ML -225
📅 Week 12 vs. NYJ (Black Friday)🏈 Dolphins +2.5, ML +114
📅 Week 13 @ Washington Commanders🏈 Dolphins -3.5, ML -175
📅 Week 14 vs. TEN (Monday Night Football)🏈 Dolphins -7, ML -298
📅 Week 15 vs. New York Jets🏈 Dolphins -1.5, ML -120
📅 Week 16 vs. DAL (Christmas Eve)🏈 Dolphins -1.5, ML -120
📅 Week 17 @ BAL (New Year's Eve)🏈 Dolphins +1.5, ML +102
📅 Week 18 vs. Buffalo Bills🏈 Dolphins -1.5, ML -122
Data Verified by ExpertSeptember 27, 2023

Lines for the Miami Dolphins' final 13 games are no longer available at DraftKings Sportsbook, but for this week's home opener against the Denver Broncos, they did become a bigger favorite. Last week, Miami was a 5.5-point favorite. This week, that moved to 7 points.

The moneyline has also moved from Miami -240 to Miami -298. The over/under for the contest is set at 48.5. Denver topped Miami in the last meeting in 2020. A 39-36 win for the Broncos in 2014 is the highest scoring contest between the teams.

The lookahead spread for the upcoming road tilt against the Bills remains unchanged, but the moneyline has gone from +145 to +150 for Miami.

Dolphins Playoff Chances: Key Updates September 2023

After a promising start, the Miami Dolphins have big hopes for the 2023 season. Attached are the updates of consequence.

  • 📅 Sept. 18, 2023: With a 24-17 win over the New England Patriots and a Dallas Cowboys victory over the New York Jets, the Miami Dolphins moved into sole possession of first place in the AFC East.
  • 📅 Sept. 11, 2023: New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in a 22-16 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills. The Jets previously had better playoffs, AFC East and Super Bowl odds than Miami.
  • 📅 Aug. 29, 2023: The Indianapolis Colts elected not to trade RB Jonathan Taylor prior to the start of the season. Miami and the Green Bay Packers were among the interested teams.
  • 📅 Aug. 27, 2023: Dolphins sign DT Zach Sieler to a contract extension for three years and more than $38 million.
  • 📅 Aug. 23, 2023: Dolphins are reportedly in trade talks with the Indianapolis Colts to acquire star running back Jonathan Taylor.
  • 📅 Aug. 17, 2023: Dolphins T Terron Armstead was carted off the practice field with an apparent right leg injury.
  • 📅 Aug. 15, 2023: Dolphins rivals sign a pair of former Pro Bowl running backs. Dalvin Cook signed with the New York Jets and Ezekiel Elliott signed with the New England Patriots.
  • 📅 July 27: CB Jalen Ramsey suffered a meniscus injury during training camp, which will require knee surgery. He's expected to miss at least 6-8 weeks, if not more.
  • 📅 June 27: The Dolphins reportedly make an offer to RB Dalvin Cook. Cook, formerly with the Minnesota Vikings, is a four-time Pro Bowler and a Miami native.
  • 📅 May 15: The Dolphins sign T Isaiah Wynn. Now in his fifth season, Wynn made seven starts last year for the New England Patriots. Wynn could contend for a starting job.
  • 📅 April 17: WR Chosen Anderson signs with the Dolphins. Anderson finished with nearly 1,100 yards receiving for the Carolina Panthers in 2020 but was most recently with the Arizona Cardinals.
  • 📅 March 17: P Jake Bailey and WR Braxton Berrios sign with the Dolphins. Bailey made the Pro Bowl in 2020 with the New England Patriots. Berrios, who played at the University of Miami, was an All-Pro as a returner for the Jets in 2021.
  • 📅 March 16: The Dolphins sign QB Mike White, who is 2-5 in seven NFL starts for the New York Jets, and re-sign RB Jeff Wilson, who rushed for 392 yards and three touchdowns in eight games for Miami last season. White will likely serve as the backup to Tagovailoa while Wilson will contribute out of the backfield.
  • 📅 March 15: The Dolphins release CB Byron Jones, who missed all of 2022 to injury, and acquire Ramsey in a trade with the Los Angeles Rams. Ramsey has made the Pro Bowl in each of the last six years.
  • 📅 Feb. 15: Vic Fangio is named as Dolphins defensive coordinator. Previously head coach of the Denver Broncos, Fangio has served as coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears. He replaces Josh Boyer.

As Miami continues to move throughout the 2023-2024 season, this section will be updated. Be sure to bookmark this page and check back often.

Key Contributors Toward Dolphins Playoff Chances

Despite not putting up the numbers that he did in Week 1, Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is now the favorite to win NFL MVP honors (+600), according to DraftKings. As proved during Sunday night's 24-17 win over the New England Patriots, Tagovailoa has nice skill players at his disposal. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill scored his third touchdown of the year on Sunday night and is tied for the top Offensive Player of the Year odds at +550.

Running back Raheem Mostert (+15000 to win Offensive Player of the Year) has also found the end zone three times this year for Miami. He finished with 121 yards rushing and two touchdowns against New England while Jaylen Waddle (+5000 to win Offensive Player of the Year) led all receivers with 86 yards on Sunday night in Foxborough. Rookie De'Von Achane (+5000 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year) finished with nine yards on two touches in his first action for Miami.

On the defensive side of the ball, Miami was without Jaelen Phillips (+6000 to win Defensive Player of the Year) on Sunday night, but Bradley Chubb (+15000 to win Defensive Player of the Year) shined with a sack and a forced fumble. Xavien Howard (+20000 to win Defensive Player of the Year) came up with his first interception of the year and moved into fourth place all-time for the Dolphins with 29 for his career. Until Jalen Ramsey gets healthy, Howard will be the guy for Miami at cornerback. Cam Smith (+4000 to win Defensive Rookie of the Year) has been quiet at the position. Not quiet on Sunday night was Christian Wilkins (+15000 to win Defensive Player of the Year), who helped keep the New England ground game in check.

Where Can I Bet on the Dolphins to Make the Playoffs?

As it currently stands, DraftKings Sportsbook has the most expansive list of props when it comes to the Miami Dolphins. DraftKings allows bettors to wager on whether the Dolphins will make the playoffs, win the AFC, win the AFC East, or the Super Bowl. FanDuel Sportsbook is also offering substantive odds and wagers on NFL games.

BetMGM Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook are two of the other most trusted names in sports betting. Caesars is even the official betting partner of the National Football League.

Unfortunately for football fans in the Sunshine State, sports betting is not legal in Florida, though there were signs of progress recently. The Seminole Tribe of Florida owns the Hard Rock hotel, casino, and sportsbook brand. If Florida courts allowed the 2021 Florida Seminole Gaming Compact to stand, the tribe would have had exclusive oversight of Florida sports betting.

Recently, an appeals court declined to rehear the case that initially brought sports betting in Florida to a halt. Technically, this means Hard Rock Bet Florida could be available as early as September 18, although chances are high that we see this case brought back to Florida or even escalated to the US Supreme Court.

Looking Ahead: Dolphins Playoff Picture

When the season started, DraftKings Sportsbook gave Miami an equal chance to make and miss the playoffs at -110. With the odds now at -425, the Dolphins have an 81% chance to make the postseason using implied probability. Those are the second-best odds in the AFC and fifth-best in all of football.

Entering Week 3, the Dolphins are alone atop the AFC East and are joined by the Baltimore Ravens as the only 2-0 teams in the AFC. Although it seems silly to look at the playoff picture through two weeks, Miami would be the No. 2 seed in the AFC if the playoffs began today and hosting the reigning world champion Kansas City Chiefs.

While game lines aren't available for every contest as they were to start the year, the Dolphins are expected to win again on Sunday as they host the Denver Broncos. Miami is looking for a second straight 3-0 start. As a 7-point favorite, that ties the largest line in the Dolphins' favor so far this season.

Miami should have a chance to build on its strong start. Three of its next four games are at home. Winning the Oct. 1 contest on the road against the Buffalo Bills would be a huge statement win as the Dolphins aim for their first AFC East crown since 2008.


Do the Dolphins Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

Yes, the Dolphins odds to make the playoffs are -425 according to DraftKings Sportsbook, which comes out to an implied probability of 81%. This means the Dolphins are extremely well-positioned to make a playoff run this season.

Are the Dolphins Out of the Playoffs?

No, the Dolphins are not out of the playoffs. As it currently stands, none of the NFL's 32 teams have been eliminated from the playoffs. Considering that seven teams from the AFC make the playoffs and the Dolphins are one of just two to sit at 2-0, Miami is currently slotted as the AFC East champion and No. 2 seed.

Where Do the Dolphins Rank in the AFC East?

With a win over the New England Patriots and a New York Jets loss to the Dallas Cowboys, the Miami Dolphins are in sole possession of first place in the AFC East at 2-0. Miami holds a one-game lead over the Jets and Buffalo Bills.

Where Do the Dolphins Rank in the AFC Playoff Standings?

As it currently stands, the Miami Dolphins are in a two-way tie atop the AFC with the Baltimore Ravens. At 2-0, the Dolphins are currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Baltimore would hold the tiebreaker.

Where Do the Dolphins Rank in the AFC Wild Card Race?

Right now, the Dolphins are in position to win the AFC East. Miami holds a one-game lead over both the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets in the division. The Dolphins are two games ahead of the winless New England Patriots and won the first matchup between the teams this season.

Baltimore and Miami are the only 2-0 teams in the AFC. Nine others are tied for the final five playoff spots at an even 1-1.

Can the Dolphins Get the No. 1 Seed?

Yes, just about every team in the NFL would wrap up the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences by winning out. The Dolphins, at 2-0, are currently tied with the Baltimore Ravens atop the AFC. While tiebreakers can be silly after one week of action, Miami currently holds the No. 2 seed in the AFC behind Baltimore. Considering the teams play in Baltimore on Dec. 31, the Dolphins control their own destiny to the conference's top seed.

The last time that Miami captured the No. 1 seed in the AFC was in 1992 when it went 11-5. After shutting out the San Diego Chargers in the AFC Divisional round that season, the Dolphins were defeated by the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship, 29-10. That remains Miami's last appearance in the AFC title game.

Who to Root for if You're a Dolphins Fan

Obviously, Miami Dolphins fans will be pulling hard for their team to beat the Denver Broncos in Sunday's home opener, but there are other games of consequence across the league. The Dolphins would be helped tremendously if the Washington Commanders could defeat the Buffalo Bills, which could give Miami a two-game lead in the division.

The New York Jets and New England Patriots will square off in an AFC East matchup. Given that the Dolphins already beat New England and hold a two-game lead over the Patriots, they would be best served by New England winning. With a win and a Baltimore Ravens loss to the Indianapolis Colts, Miami would be the last remaining undefeated team in the AFC.

It's early in the season, but NFC teams beating AFC teams could help Miami down the stretch. This week, fans of the Dolphins should pull for the Minnesota Vikings to beat the Los Angeles Chargers, Chicago Bears to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles Rams to beat the Cincinnati Bengals.

Dolphins Postseason Outlook and Predictions

As it currently stands, according to DraftKings, the Miami Dolphins hold an 81% chance to make the playoffs, a 51.2% chance to win the AFC East, a 14.3% chance to win the AFC, and a 7.1% chance to make the Super Bowl.

In addition to the odds, the Dolphins also shot up this week to fifth in ESPN's Football Power Index. Through two weeks, Miami has been one of the better looking teams in the NFL. The Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers are the only teams in the league to begin the year with two road wins.

Moving forward, things won't be easy, but with the injury to New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the New England Patriots starting 0-2, the AFC East is looking like a two-team race between the Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. To make matters even better for the Dolphins, two perceived contenders -- the Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals -- are off to 0-2 starts.

The Dolphins' offense has proven capable of moving the ball and the defense improved immensely from Week 1 to Week 2 under first-year coordinator Vic Fangio. Miami will also get Jaelen Phillips, Terron Armstead, and Jalen Ramsey back from injury by midseason. Barring a major injury or setback, it's hard to see the Dolphins missing the playoffs right now. One of just two 2-0 teams in the AFC, Miami would be the No. 2 seed behind the Baltimore Ravens if the postseason started today.

Miami Dolphins Playoffs FAQs


Mike Ferguson is a college football betting analyst for Mike spends his days browsing the latest lines for all the top college football betting markets to find storylines curated specifically for sports bettors in Florida.

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