Amid a historic 2023 campaign, Tyreek Hill's odds to win the NFL MVP are +2500 right now, according to Hard Rock Bet Florida. The Miami Dolphins wide receiver's odds dropped after missing his first game of the season in the team's Week 15 home matchup against the struggling Jets.
|Tracking Tyreek Hill
|🏆NFL Offensive Player of the Year:
|97 (4th in NFL)
|🏈2023 Receiving Yards:
|1,542 (1st in NFL)
|12 (1st in NFL)
Despite missing last week's game, Tyreek is on a pace to complete the greatest season ever for an NFL wide receiver. Hill is set to break the NFL's single-season receiving record, but is also on pace to best his own career-high for touchdown catches. The MVP award is, in a sense, a team award and the Dolphins currently hold the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
Yes, Tyreek Hill has a legitimate chance to win the NFL MVP Award. While Brock Purdy (49ers) has a stronghold on the odds today, the race has been fluid all season. As it currently stands, the superstar wideout Hill is tied for the seventh-shortest MVP odds in the NFL, according to Hard Rock Bet. However, Tyreek is tied with his Dolphins teammate, QB Tua Tagovailoa, at +2500 odds. The star-studded Miami duo aren't far behind quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) and Josh Allen (Bills) in the odds but have some distance behind the favorites, quarterbacks Brock Purdy (49ers), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), and Dak Prescott (Cowboys).
|🏆NFL MVP Odds
|🏈B. Purdy (San Francisco)
|🏈L. Jackson (Baltimore)
|🏈D. Prescott (Dallas)
|🏈J. Hurts (Philadelphia)
|🏈J. Allen (Buffalo)
|🏈C. McCaffrey (49ers)
|🏈P. Mahomes (Kansas City)
|🏈T. Tagovailoa (Miami)
|🏈T. Hill (Miami)
Of course, the award should be won on the field and the Dolphins will square off against three MVP candidates in the season's final four weeks. Tyreek & Tua will get a chance to compete against the odds favorite, Prescott, on Christmas Eve at Hard Rock Stadium. In the following two weeks, Miami will travel to play the No. 1 seed Ravens, led by Jackson, and host the Bills, led by Allen. You can bet on Hill or any MVP candidate with the quiet launch of Florida online sports betting.
While Hill is hardly the only contender, it's not hard to make a case that he is the NFL's MVP this season. The speedy wideout might be the biggest reason why Miami, at 9-3, is off to its best 12-game start in 22 years.
Below, I give each of my reasons behind why Tyreek deserves the award through 14 weeks.
Throughout NFL history, no player had ever finished with 2,000 yards receiving. At this point, Hill is on pace to beat that by about 100 yards.
Although the Miami Dolphins don't have that many close wins, Hill always seems to make the big play any time adversity hits for Miami. Hill scored the game-winning touchdown in a 36-34 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1 and always seems to make a play when it matters most. On Sunday, after the Washington Commanders cut the lead to 17-7, Hill answered with a 60-yard touchdown catch, and from there, the contest was never in doubt. Hill had similar touchdowns in wins over the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers.
As referenced earlier, Hill leads the NFL in receiving yards, touchdowns, and yards after catch. Equally important, though, is that no one else is currently close to his production. Hill has nearly 300 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and 100 yards after the catch more than the next closest receiver. The only wideout outperforming Tyreek in any category is Keenan Allen (Chargers), who leads the league in receptions at 108 – 11 more than Hill.
As the face of the Dallas franchise, Dak Prescott has still yet to lead the Cowboys to a win over a team with a winning record. Hill, on the other hand, had the Dolphins as the top seed in the AFC for the first time at this point in the season since 1984. Despite losing it in a tragic home loss to the Titans, the team has a firm grasp on the No. 2 seed.
While Prescott and the Cowboys have been criticized for not beating a team with a winning record, the same is true for Miami. Prescott leads the NFL with 28 touchdown passes and has engineered two game-winning drives. Most importantly for the award, his team is one of four with 10 wins in 2023.
While Brock Purdy is in the midst of an outstanding season, he is surrounded by dynamic playmakers. Hill is the most exciting player on any field he steps on.
The MVP favorite, Purdy's value to the San Francisco 49ers can't be overstated. Purdy is 14-3 as a starter and currently leads the NFL in completion percentage, yards per attempt, QBR, and passer rating.
Jalen Hurts is probably the best dual-threat quarterback in the league and is leading the team with the NFL's best record, but as is the case with Purdy, he's surrounded by playmakers. Despite playing on an offense that ranks in the top 10 in rushing, Hurts has also thrown the fourth-most interceptions.
While Hill is a vitally important piece to a good Miami offense, Hurts is the straw that stirs the drink for Philadelphia. The face of the one of NFL's best teams, Hurts is 24-5 as a starter over the last three seasons. Still, after suffering consecutive losses to the Cowboys & 49ers in the last two games, Tyreek's chances of beating him out skyrocketed.
Since becoming the starter for Kansas City in 2018, Patrick Mahomes has emerged as the top quarterback in the NFL but his passing yards per game average is at a career-low this season. For Hill's quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, his yards per game average is an all-time high.
As huge as the addition of Tyreek Hill has been for Miami, his former quarterback Patrick Mahomes has done just fine in Kansas City without him. Last season's regular season and Super Bowl MVP, Mahomes isn't putting up quite the numbers that he has in years past, but the name of the award is "Most Valuable Player." It's hard to argue that anyone is more valuable to his team than Mahomes is to the Chiefs.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is in the midst of a career year, but the argument can and has been made that that wouldn't be the case without Tyreek Hill. According to the numbers, 43% of Tagovailoa's passing yards and half of his touchdown passes have gone to Hill.
While Hill is having an outstanding year, the Dolphins are loaded with offensive talent, including Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane, and Jaylen Waddle. Take Hill away from Miami and the Dolphins are still probably a playoff team. Without Tagovailoa, could that argument still be made?
It's been widely noted that no wide receiver has ever won the NFL's Most Valuable Player award, but it's also worth noting that none have ever finished with 2,000 yards receiving. In league history, however, eight players have rushed for 2,000 yards. Four were recognized as MVP by the Associated Press and five by the Pro Football Writers of America. If Hill does hit 2,000 and the Dolphins finish as the top seed in the AFC, the speedy wide receiver will have a very strong argument.
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Hard Rock Bet currently places Tyreek Hill's MVP odds at +2500, making him tied for the seventh-shortest odds in the NFL. Stay tuned to this page all season for real-time updates on Tyreek Hill's chances to secure the coveted MVP title on this page all season.
Comparing quarterbacks to wide receivers statistically is tough, but Christian McCaffrey is tied with Hill for the best odds among non-quarterbacks. As a running back, McCaffey gets more touches than Hill and has five more touchdowns, but in terms of yards from scrimmage, Hill has the advantage.
According to DraftKings, San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy is the top contender for this year's NFL MVP with odds set at -190, per Hard Rock Bet. Close on his heels is Ravens QB Lamar Jackson at +450 odds, with Cowboys QB Dak Prescott sitting third in the race at +525 odds.
Statistics play a vital role in deciding a league MVP, but key moments and team success also matters. In each of the last six years, the AP MVP has come from a player from a team that finished as the No. 1 seed in the AFC or NFC.
When betting on the NFL MVP, make sure the payout is worth your wager. For example, a $10 bet on Brock Purdy (+300) to win MVP would currently pay out $30 whereas a $10 bet on Tyreek Hill (+1750) to win MVP would pay $175. Since team success is a major factor, look at the team's schedule down the stretch.
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