Ron DeSantis 2024 Presidential Odds: How Long Will He Stay In Race?

Fact Checked by Thomas Leary
Ron DeSantis Presidential Odds

Key Takeaways:

  • βœ… Ron DeSantis' odds to win the U.S. presidency have shortened following his second place finish at the Iowa Caucus to Donald Trump, though he still remains a longshot to win the November election. DeSantis' odds shortened from +4000 to +2500, with the Florida governor now sitting as the seventh most likely to win the U.S. presidency. He trails Donald Trump, President Joe Biden, Nikki Haley, Gavin Newsom, Michelle Obama and Robert Kennedy Jr.
  • βœ… DeSantis' presidential odds are +2500, per Bet365 UK.
  • βœ… Trump (+120) now leads the candidate pool, including DeSantis and Biden (+187).

Ron DeSantis won re-election for Florida Governor in a landslide against Democrat Charlie Crist in November 2022 but has faced negative headlines throughout his campaign as his rivalries with Trump and the Walt Disney Company continue. Today, he struggles not just with former President Donald Trump, but with fellow Republican candidate Nikki Haley, California governor Gavin Newsom and even the emergence of Michelle Obama (+1200).

DeSantis and Newsom (+1800) went head-to-head in a Nov. 30 debate. Since that debate, DeSantis' odds to win the presidential election significantly lengthened, though his second place finish in Iowa has already helped him regain some momentum. 

What are DeSantis' odds to win against Donald Trump and Joe Biden in 2024? We cover all that and more in this ultimate guide to betting on Ron DeSantis odds to become U.S. president.

Latest Ron DeSantis 2024 Odds To Be President

Ron DeSantis odds to be the next President of the United States are +2500, compared to +1200 in late September, as DeSantis has fallen behind the pace with former president Donald Trump's fundraising, and the emergence of other U.S. presidential contenders. DeSantis is now the seventh-most likely presidential election winner, behind Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Gavin Newsom, Michelle Obama, Robert Kennedy Jr. and Nikki Haley.

Donald TrumpπŸ“ˆ +120 (46% Chance)
Joe Biden+187 (36% Chance)
Nikki HaleyπŸ“ˆ +1000 (9% Chance)
Michelle ObamaπŸ“ˆ +1200 (8% Chance)
Gavin NewsomπŸ“ˆ +1800 (5% Chance)
Robert Kennedy Jr.πŸ“ˆ +2500 (3% Chance)
⭐ Ron DeSantisπŸ“ˆ +2500 (3% Chance)
βœ… Data Last Verified by Expert:July 17, 2024

DeSantis' odds imply a 3% chance he will be elected President in 2024, meaning that even though there are postives to take away from his Iowa showing, he remains a significant longshot.

Ron DeSantis officially announced his candidacy for President with Elon Musk on May 24, which made headlines for technological issues throughout the Twitter Spaces stream. He has made campaign stops around South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Iowa in the last few months. 

If elected, his campaign promises include revoking China's trade status and eliminating several federal agenciesβ€”the Department of Education, the IRS, the Department of Commerce, and the Department of Energy. DeSantis has also vowed to bring accountability to the Justice Department if elected. Throughout his speeches, he has maintained it will take eight years in office to implement his policies, a veiled dig at Trump, who can only serve one more term. 

DeSantis has faced repeated personal attacks from Trump and received backlash over his campaign staff. After participating in two Republican primary debates, DeSantis' odds to win the presidency have fluctuated, but as of Nov. 29 are at the longest odds yet this winter, as the Florida Gov. has lost ground to Michelle Obama, Robert Kennedy Jr. and Nikki Haley (+100). Haley in late 2023 received a massive boost from the Koch Network, the political group founded by brothers Charles and David Koch. The group endorsed Haley on Tuesday, Nov. 28 and will provide an influx of financial heft to battle both Trump and DeSantis for the Republican nomination.

Can DeSantis win in 2024?

DeSantis' chances to win in 2024 appear nearly dead in the water, as Haley is now the second most likely Republican candidate (+800). Trump has seen his odds shift to +120 and stay consistent through both indictments this summer. Trump has a 46% implied probability to become President for a second time.

Whoever does end up the GOP nominee next cycle will have to run a competitive race against Joe Biden. President Biden is still the second favorite to win re-election, with his odds lengthening to +187 since late August.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s odds (+2500) have gotten shorter throughout the summer as he's continued to gain notoriety for his anti-vaccination views and other health-related conspiracy theories. Kennedy, a Democratic candidate, is the son of Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of President John F. Kennedy. Earlier in October he for the first time overtook DeSantis on the oddsboard, though they are now both priced at +2500.

Worth noting, Florida sports betting is currently limited, including betting on politics. The odds used are from Bet365 Sportsbook in the UK, where betting on politics is legal and regulated.

Key Developments for Ron DeSantis Odds to be President

There have been some key developments impacting the 2024 presidential election odds. Below, we've laid out those key developments to explain how we got here.

  • πŸ“… Jan. 16, 2023: DeSantis finishes runner-up to Trump at the Iowa Caucus. Vivek Ramaswamy drops out.
  • πŸ“… Oct. 26, 2023: Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley overtakes DeSantis on the oddsboard to become U.S. President.
  • πŸ“… Oct. 6, 2023: Ron DeSantis loses ground to Michelle Obama and Robert Kennedy Jr., and is tied with Nikki Haley at +2000 to become U.S. President.
  • πŸ“… Sept. 26, 2023: Ron DeSantis and Gavin Newsom, the third and fourth favorites to be elected, agree to a head-to-head debate set for Nov. 30.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 23, 2023: All major candidatesβ€”except for one notable omissionβ€”for the Republican nomination participated in the first debate of the 2024 Presidential race. Former president Donald Trump, far and away the front-runner for the nomination, declined to participate. DeSantis participated along with former vice president Mike Pence, Chris Christie and others.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 14, 2023: Donald Trump, the front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, is indicted by a grand jury in Georgia on charges that he and others in his inner circle attempted to interfere with and overturn the results of the 2020 election won by President Joe Biden. Trump was charged with felony racketeering and numerous conspiracy charges.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 2, 2023: Ron DeSantis agrees to debate California Governor Gavin Newsom on Fox News after months of taunts back and forth.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 1, 2023: Former President Donald Trump is indicted on four counts in connection with his efforts to overturn the 2020 Presidential Election results.
  • πŸ“… July 26, 2023: Ron DeSantis says he would consider Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. to run the CDC or FDA if elected president. 
  • πŸ“… July 25, 2023: DeSantis' motorcade is involved in a car crash on the campaign trail in Tennessee, but the Florida governor was unharmed.
  • πŸ“… July 24, 2023: Seven candidates qualify for the August GOP debate following new polling, including DeSantis, Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott and Chris Christie.
  • πŸ“… July 16, 2023: DeSantis' 2024 presidential campaign cuts staff as donors continue to flock to support Trump. 
  • πŸ“… July 15, 2023: DeSantis comments in an interview that he would consider popular Republican Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds as his running mate.
  • πŸ“… June 27, 2023: DeSantis asks a federal judge to dismiss Disney's lawsuit against him alleging a "target campaign of government retaliation."
  • πŸ“… June 13, 2023: Trump pleads not guilty to 37 felony counts related to alleged mishandling of classified documents following his arraignment in Miami.
  • πŸ“… June 8, 2023: Trump is indicted on federal charges in the special counsel’s classified documents probe, marking the first time a former president has faced such charges. He is facing a charge under the Espionage Act, as well as charges of obstruction of justice, destruction or falsification of records, conspiracy and false statements.
  • πŸ“… June 2, 2023: A federal judge overseeing the First Amendment lawsuit that Walt Disney Parks filed against DeSantis is recusing himself.
  • πŸ“… May 24, 2023: DeSantis officially files to run for president and announces his campaign on Twitter Spaces with Elon Musk. Later that day, he signs a Florida state bill into law that exempts him from having to resign from his current office to run for U.S. President or Vice President.
  • πŸ“… April 26, 2023: The Walt Disney Company files a lawsuit against DeSantis, state officials, and the board appointed to oversee government services at Disney World minutes after the board voted to nullify a Disney expansion.
  • πŸ“… April 25, 2023: President Joe Biden announced his re-election campaign.
  • πŸ“… March 30, 2023: Trump's first indictment is announced. The former president becomes the GOP leader over Ron DeSantis.

DeSantis remained mostly mum on whether he was running for the first six months of 2023.

Is Michelle Obama Running For President?

Michelle Obama has not announced her intention to run for President as of Jan. 16, but operators like Bet365 continue to shorten her odds compared to known contenders such as Ron DeSantis. Obama currently has +1200 odds to become the next president.

What are Ron DeSantis Chances to be President in 2028 & 2033?

Ron DeSantis has a 3% chance to be President in 2028 and 2032, per Bet365UK. In order for this bet to cash in, however, Trump would have to win in 2024, followed by DeSantis victories in the following two elections.

Is Ron DeSantis Running for President?

Yes, Ron DeSantis is running for the U.S. Presidency in 2024. Bookmakers, political analysts and national polling gave the impression DeSantis would be Trump's toughest contender for the nomination.

DeSantis recently released a new book titled, "The Courage To Be Free," which quickly became a New York Times bestseller and underscores many of his political stances. Before officially announcing his candidacy for the 2024 Presidential Election, DeSantis embarked on a nationwide tour with GOP activists, seemingly to boost his nationwide profile as well as promote his new book. He also made diplomatic appearances in Japan, South Korea, Israel, and Britain. 

DeSantis won re-election against Crist for a second term as Florida Governor in November 2022. 

Who will be Ron DeSantis' Running Mate in 2024?

Ron DeSantis has said he would consider Republican Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds as his running mate should he win the GOP presidential nomination. Reynolds now has +2500 odds to become the GOP VP nominee, according to Ladbrokes Sportsbook UK, ranking 12th out of potential picks and just behind DeSantis himself.

Former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is the betting favorite to be the GOP VP nominee (+400). Lake is a vocal supporter of Donald Trump.

Vivek Ramaswamy's VP odds (+500) and Tim Scott's VP odds (+500) have also gotten shorter recently, with Trump praising both candidates in July. Ladbrokes Sportsbook's odds are the shortest for allies and favorites of Trump's, perhaps signaling that they believe Trump will ultimately become the GOP presidential nominee. 

Latest 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds

Ron DeSantis odds to be the next Republican Presidential nominee have lengthened to +1400, an implied probability of 7%

Conversely, Donald Trump's odds have continued to get shorter and shorter since he was indicted in early June. He's now -1000 to secure the nomination, giving him a 91% chance via implied probability.

Donald TrumpπŸ“ˆ -1000
Nikki HaleyπŸ“ˆ +800
⭐ Ron DeSantisπŸ“ˆ (+1400)
βœ… Data Last Verified By Expert:July 17, 2024

2024 Republican VP Nominee Odds

Arizona gubernatorial candidate and Donald Trump ally Kari Lake (+400) is the odds-on favorite to secure the Republican VP nomination. Lake has made headlines as a Trump loyalist and leader of the MAGA Freedom Caucus. Although Lake does not have the same legislative resume as other potential picks, her popularity within the MAGA base could lead to her becoming the Republican candidate for VP. 

These GOP VP nomination odds have seen some slight shifts since late July:

Kari Lake4/1 (+400)
Tim ScottπŸ“ˆ 5/1 (+700)
Nikki HaleyπŸ“‰ 11/2 (+550)
Vivek Ramaswamy5/1 (+500)
Elise Stefanik10/1 (+1000)
Sarah Huckabee Sanders12/1 (+1200)
Kristi Noem12/1 (+1200)
βœ… Data Last Verified By Expert:July 17, 2024

Lake was a longtime Phoenix news anchor before announcing her candidacy for Arizona governor in 2021. She secured the GOP nomination with an endorsement from Trump but ultimately lost the general election. Lake refused to concede the race and sued to have the results overturned (the lawsuit was dismissed). 

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott now ranks just behind Lake at +500 odds. Nikki Haley appointed him to fill a Senate vacancy in 2013, and has served ever since. In 2016, he became the first Black senator elected in the South since Reconstruction. He announced his candidacy for President in May, but his odds lag significantly behind Trump and DeSantis.

Nikki Haley (+550) has also announced her campaign for President, though she too trails Trump. Haley was the governor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017 before becoming the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations in 2017 and 2018. Bookmakers expect her to have staying power as a candidate due to her previous work in the Trump administration. 

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy's VP odds have gotten shorter over the summer, with Trump praising his campaign. Born to Indian immigrant parents, Ramaswamy attended Harvard and Yale and founded a biopharmaceutical company after working as an investment partner at a hedge fund. He's gained prominence for his "anti-woke" messaging. Ramaswamy endorsed Trump after dropping out of the race following the Iowa Caucus.

Longshots to watch include Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (20/1), former Florida Governor and current Florida Senator Rick Scott (50/1), NFL Hall of Famer and Colorado head coach Deion Sanders (100/1), and former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (100/1)

Dr. Mehmet Oz and Herschel Walker are each listed at 200/1 after losing their 2022 Senate campaigns.

DeSantis Odds to be Vice President in 2024

Ron DeSantis has 20 to 1 odds to be the Vice President nominee in 2024, which implies a 4.8% chance, regardless of who is on the Presidential ticket. The possibility that he joins forces with Trump can't be ruled out, no matter how unlikely that may be.

This represented a significant shift from his 100/1 odds in June, when his implied probability was just 1%. Oddsmakers may be thinking DeSantis' overall profile as a candidate is rising among the GOP pool.

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