Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances Week 16: Tracking the Jags Playoff Picture

Fact Checked by Shannon Lane
Jaguars Playoff Chances

Key Takeaways:

  • πŸ“Š The Jaguars' playoff chances are 74%, according to the New York Times Playoff Simulator.
  • πŸ“ˆ This gives Jacksonville the fourth-shortest odds to make the playoffs among AFC teams.
  • πŸ† The Jags have a 56.5% chance to win the AFC South, making them the favorite ahead of Houston.

The hardest thing about winning is doing it again. After beginning the season 8-3, Jacksonville is down to 8-6 after three consecutive losses. Despite the road bump, due in part to Trevor Lawrence's injury, the Jaguars' playoff chances are still 74%, according to the New York Times Playoff Simulator. 

In fact, the Jags' chances are so favorable that sportsbooks aren't currently offering odds to bet on them to make the postseason. This is the first week you can't bet on that market, proving how likely it is for the franchise to make the NFL Playoffs for the first time since 2017.

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Must be 18+ to participate. T&Cs apply.

What are the Jaguars Playoff Chances?

The Jaguars playoff chances are 74%, per NY Times, and odds have been pulled from Hard Rock Bet. This is due to Jacksonville's likelihood of getting a wild card spot even if it collapses enough to lose the AFC South.

In the table below, you can find the Jags' playoff chances, as well as the team's chances to win the Super Bowl, AFC, and AFC South.

⭐ Jaguars Playoff Chances74% Chance
β›” Jaguars Miss Playoffs26% Chance
πŸ† Jaguars Win Super Bowl2.4% Chance
πŸ‘‘ Jaguars Win AFC7.1% Chance
πŸ”₯ Jaguars Win AFC South56.5% Chance
πŸ’ͺ ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)1.4 FPI (10th)
πŸ“Š New York Times Postseason Simulator74%
βœ… Data Verified by ExpertJuly 17, 2024

Having just one or two sources when it comes to the Jaguars playoff chances isn't enough. That's why we feature multiple angles to paint the most accurate playoff picture. Above you'll find data from the New York Times Postseason Simulator and ESPN's Football Power Index or FPI (FPI measures the strength of the team via net points scale; expected point margin vs. average opponent on a neutral field).

To calculate the Jags implied probability, we converted the odds given by the top sportsbooks into a percentage. This is a helpful way to better understand the odds and gives us a detailed outline of their playoff chances.

The Jaguars are on the verge of a playoff berth, but they need to avoid a team meltdown following consecutive losses. The AFC landscape is in disarray after defeats for the three divisional leaders this week. Jacksonville's playoff chances would nearly solidify with an upset win against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The upcoming game is pivotal for the Jaguars' postseason aspirations.

Jaguars Week-by-Week Playoff Chances

The chart below will be tracking the Jaguars' weekly playoff chances as the season progresses using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. This will allow us to visualize how their season is going.

WeekJags Playoff Chances
Week 1              66.7%
Week 272.9%
Week 369.2%
Week 452.4%
Week 552.4%
Week 665.5%
Week 769.7%
Week 881.1%
Week 994.7%
Week 1093.3%
Week 1185.7%
Week 1299.5%
Week 1399.5%
Week 1494.2%
Week 1599%
Week 1674%

The Jaguars were having a dream season, sitting at 8-3 on the season heading into a very winnable Monday night game against the Joe Burrow-less Bengals. Late in a close game, franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence went down with what looked like a serious ankle injury. The third-year pro missed the rest of the game, and despite returning a week later, the team has had three consecutive losses since that moment. While Jacksonville still has a more realistic chance of making the playoffs than most of the conference, a catastrophic collapse of three more losses would derail a once-promising season.

Still, Jags fans shouldn't worry as their postseason chances are likely secured with zero teams above .500 remaining on the schedule.

Do the Jaguars Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

Yes, the Jaguars have a favorable 74% chance to make the playoffs. It would take a miracle for the Jaguars to miss the 2023 NFL playoffs. After three consecutive losses, the fan base is certainly cognizant of a potential collapse. However, the team's remaining schedule is arguably the weakest in the league.

Are the Jaguars Out of the Playoffs?

No, the Jaguars are among the most likely teams in the NFL to make the playoffs in 2023. Currently tied for fourth place in the AFC, the Jags hold the fifth-best odds in the AFC to make the playoffs, with a 74% chance based on implied probability.

Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances: Key Offseason Updates July 2024

The Jaguars are trending in the right direction after decades of underwhelming results. Below you'll find some key organizational updates that could impact the Jaguars' upcoming season.

  • πŸ“† December 10, 2023: Trevor Lawrence remarkably made his 49th consecutive start despite sustaining a high ankle sprain just six days prior.
  • πŸ“† December 4, 2023: An unfortunate turn of events as Trevor Lawrence is set to miss 2-3 games due to a high ankle sprain.
  • πŸ“† December 4, 2023: Adding to the injury woes, wide receiver Christian Kirk is sidelined with a groin injury and will be out for "some time."
  • πŸ“† November 19, 2023: Trevor Lawrence has his first four-touchdown game of his career against the Texans, throwing and rushing for two touchdowns.
  • πŸ“† November 13, 2023: Star WR Zay Jones was arrested. However, Jones was welcomed back to the team and will continue to play in Week 13.
  • πŸ“† October 31: Jaguars trade for Minnesota Vikings G Ezra Cleveland to help protect Trevor Lawrence.
  • πŸ“† October 25: Wide receiver Zay Jones is still not practicing after aggravating his knee injury a few weeks ago.
  • πŸ“† October 19: The Jags pick up their fourth-straight win with a victory over the New Orleans Saints, 31-24.
  • πŸ“† October 15: Trevor Lawrence is dealing with a knee sprain and is considered day-to-day.
  • πŸ“† October 15: The Jaguars take the lead in the division after defeating the Colts. They also got some help with the Ravens beating the Titans in London.
  • πŸ“† October 8: Jacksonville picks up an impressive win over the Buffalo Bills, an AFC favorite and Super Bowl hopeful.
  • πŸ“† October 1: OT Cam Robinson has finished his four-game suspension and will play in Week 5 vs the Bills.

If you want to be kept in the loop on all the latest and greatest Jaguars news, bookmark this page.

Key Contributors Toward Jaguars Playoff Chances

The Jaguars' success hinges on Trevor Lawrence's impressive performance, amassing 3,261 passing yards and a 17/10 TD-to-INT ratio. Lawrence, despite a devastating injury, displayed heroism by forcing his start against the Browns. His connection with Evan Engram, highlighted by a beautiful score, showcases his potential to reach the NFL's highest ranks.

The offensive unit, featuring Calvin Ridley, Travis Etienne, and Evan Engram, has proven crucial, with Etienne on track for a remarkable 1000+ yards and 12 touchdowns. However, the offensive line, falling short of expectations, allowed 24 sacks, including five in the loss to San Francisco. Despite OT Walker Little's standout performance until the unfortunate incident with Lawrence's ankle, the addition of G Ezra Clevland aims to bolster protection.

Head Coach Doug Pederson, the AFC Coach of the Year, is a strong contender for the current year, listed at +2200. The Jaguars face a challenging schedule against top-rated AFC teams, with an Over/Under win total set at 10.5. Despite the intimidating schedule, confidence remains in the Jaguars' ability to surpass expectations with Lawrence leading the charge.

πŸ—£οΈ Jacksonville Jaguars Depth Chart

Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Picture and Predictions

The Jacksonville Jaguars find themselves in the thick of the playoff race. With a plethora of games still to play, their playoff destiny largely remains in their own hands. The Jaguars' current season has been a rollercoaster ride, with triumphant victories interspersed with disheartening losses. With a record of 6-3, they are comfortably positioned with an 86.7% playoff chance.

If the season ended today, the Jaguars would be the AFC South Champions and the No. 3 seed. They need two wins in November against the Texans and Titans in weeks 11 and 12 and a week 15 matchup against the Ravens that will prove to be the deciding factors for where the Jaguars will finish the season.

I believe the Jaguars can beat the Titans and Texans, almost guaranteeing them the division but their MNF game on Dec 4 against the Bengals and the Ravens on Dec 17 will dictate their playoff seed. Finishing with a 13-4 record and securing the three seed in the AFC is my goal for the Jaguars.

πŸ‘‰ AFC South Breakdown: Jaguars vs Texans Odds

Where Can I Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars to Make the Playoffs?

Florida sports fans got unexpected news on November 7 when Hard Rock Bet announced they would be re-launching their betting platform in what they're calling an "early access period" prior to fully rolling out at an unknown future date. Only those who previously had an account open with Hard Rock Bet or were loyalty members before November 6 can place bets currently, however. We may also see Hard Rock Bet removed once again as Flagler Associates have asked the Florida Supreme Court to step in and block the app from being used in the state until the legal battles are fully resolved.

So, for now, there is a limited group of people who can access and place bets with the Hard Rock Bet Florida app. You can also join a waitlist by enrolling in the Unity by Hard Rock loyalty program and earning 1+ Unity points. To earn points, you have to visit one of the six retail casino locations owned by the Seminole Tribe and play casino games.

πŸ‘‰ AFC South Breakdown: Jaguars vs Colts Odds

Jacksonville Jaguars Playoffs FAQs


Beau Adams

Beau Adams is a tried-and-true disabled NFL enthusiast, Notre Dame alum, and ardent Jaguars’ aficionado with a deep passion for obscure statistical analysis. He'll use his love for the Jags and background in analytics as a betting expert for FloridaBet.com throughout the NFL season.

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