Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances Week 3: Tracking the Jaguars Playoff Picture

Fact Checked by Shannon Lane
Jaguars Playoff Chances

Key Takeaways:

  • πŸ“Š The Jaguars playoff chances are 69.2% according to their latest playoff odds of -225
  • ❌ Jacksonville has just a 30.8% chance of missing the playoffs, the lowest chance among AFC South teams.
  • πŸ† The Jags have a 3.85% chance to win Super Bowl LVIII with +2500 odds.

With a young and talented roster led by star quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars have high hopes for a successful season and a return to the postseason. While the results have been mixed through the first two games, the Jaguars look to be in a strong spot to make to the playoffs.

Throughout the season, I will delve into the details of the their playoff chances, examining their schedule, key contributors, the Jaguars Super Bowl odds, and overall outlook for the team's postseason aspirations.

What are the Jaguars Playoff Chances?

The Jaguars playoff chances are 69.2%, per DraftKings Sportsbook, while their chances to miss the playoffs are just 30.8%.

In the table below, you can find the Jags' playoff chances, as well as the team's chances to win the Super Bowl, the AFC, and the AFC South.

⭐ Jaguars Playoff Chances69.2% Chance
β›” Jaguars Miss Playoffs30.8% Chance
πŸ† Jaguars Win Super Bowl3.85% Chance
πŸ‘‘ Jaguars Win AFC6.67% Chance
πŸ”₯ Jaguars Win AFC South59.1% Chance
πŸ“Š New York Times Postseason SimulatorNot Available Yet
πŸ’ͺ ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)0.4 FPI (12th)
βœ… Data Verified by ExpertSeptember 27, 2023

Having just one or two sources when it comes to the Jaguars playoff chances isn't enough. That's why we feature multiple angles to paint the most accurate playoff picture. Above you'll find data from the New York Times Postseason Simulator and ESPN's Football Power Index or FPI (FPI measures the strength of the team via net points scale; expected point margin vs. average opponent on a neutral field).

To calculate the Jags implied probability, we converted the odds given by the top sportsbooks into a percentage. This is a helpful way to better understand the odds and gives us a detailed outline of their playoff chances.

Following their Week 2 loss, and along with the Titans' victory, the Jaguars have seen their postseason chances decrease slightly. The Jags' chances to win the AFC South, for example, dropped from over 65% to 59.1%. Jacksonville is still in a strong spot overall, however, and could climb back up with a win over the Texans.

Jaguars Week-by-Week Playoff Chances

The chart below will be tracking the Jaguars' weekly playoff chances as the season progresses. This will allow us to visualize how their season is going.

WeekJags Playoff Chances
Week 1              66.7%
Week 272.9%
Week 369.2%

In week one of the 2023 season everything went the Jaguars way - each of the other three 2022 AFC division winners lost their first game and all of their divisional foes also picked up losses.

Week two wasn't as kind to Jacksonville, as the Jags picked up their first loss of the season and the Tennessee Titans pulled off a surprising win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Still, with a 69.2% chance of making the playoffs, the Jaguars are in a great position to make it to the playoffs for a second-straight season. As a franchise, Jacksonville hasn't made back-to-back playoff appearances since the 1996-1999 seasons.

Jaguars Schedule and Betting Lines

The Jaguars schedule was released in May 2023, and DraftKings Sportsbook has assigned point spreads and moneylines to the Jags matchups. Below, I've listed out each week's opponent, as well as the Jags' point spread and moneyline for each available game.

πŸ“… Week 1 @ Indianapolis Colts🏈 Jaguars -3.5, ML -185
πŸ“… Week 2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs🏈 Jaguars +3.5, ML +150
πŸ“… Week 3 vs. Houston Texans🏈 Jaguars -8.5, ML -410
πŸ“… Week 4 vs. ATL (London)🏈 Jaguars -3, ML -148
πŸ“… Week 5 @ BUF (London)🏈 Jaguars +3.5, ML +145
πŸ“… Week 6 vs. Indianapolis Colts🏈 Jaguars -6.5, ML -260
πŸ“… Week 7 @ NO (Thursday Night Football)🏈 Jaguars +1, ML -105
πŸ“… Week 8 @ Pittsburgh Steelers🏈 Jaguars +1, ML -105
πŸ“… Week 9🏈 BYE
πŸ“… Week 10 vs. San Francisco 49ers🏈 Jaguars +1, ML -105
πŸ“… Week 11 vs. Tennessee Titans🏈 Jaguars -5, ML -205
πŸ“… Week 12 @ Houston Texans🏈 Jaguars -4.5, ML -195
πŸ“… Week 13 vs. CIN (Monday Night Football)🏈 Jaguars +1, ML -105
πŸ“… Week 14 @ Cleveland Browns🏈 Jaguars +1, ML -105
πŸ“… Week 15 vs. BAL (Sunday Night Football)🏈 Jaguars -1, ML -115
πŸ“… Week 16 @ TB (Christmas Eve)🏈 Jaguars -3.5, ML -180
πŸ“… Week 17 vs. CAR (New Year's Eve)🏈 Jaguars -5, ML -210
πŸ“… Week 18 @ Tennessee Titans🏈 Jaguars -2.5, ML -135
βœ… Data Verified by ExpertSeptember 27, 2023

The spread for the Jaguars/Texans matchup has seen some decent movement from the early lines and even over the past few days. When DraftKings released all of the games earlier this year, the Jaguars were 7-point favorites. That climbed up to 9.5 earlier this week but has since dropped to 8.5. With moneyline odds of -410, Jacksonville is still a heavy favorite, but some bettors seem to be taking the points with Houston.

The Jags have also seen their spread dwindle in their Week 4 matchup against Atlanta. Originally opening at -4 in favor of Jacksonville, that has dropped to -3. 

Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances: Key Offseason Updates September 2023

The Jaguars are trending in the right direction after decades of underwhelming results. Below you'll find some key organizational updates that could impact the Jaguars' upcoming season.

  • πŸ“† May 22, 2023: Receiver Calvin Ridley practices in his first sanctioned Jacksonville Jaguars practice after being suspended for the 2022 season for sports betting.
  • πŸ“† April 27-29, 2023: The Jaguars draft Oklahoma OT Anton Harrison in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
  • πŸ“† March 8, 2023: The Jaguars release CB Shaquill Griffin.
  • πŸ“† March 6, 2023: The Jaguars franchise tag tight end Evan Engram, who was top five among tight ends in targets and receptions in 2022.
  • πŸ“† March 6, 2023: The NFL reinstates Jaguars receiver Calvin Ridley, a great weapon for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense.
  • πŸ“† February 25, 2023: Jacksonville Jaguars restructure the contract of inside linebacker Foye Oluokun to save over $10.3M in cap space.
  • πŸ“† February 26, 2023: Lineman Roy Robertson-Harris signed a three-year extension worth $30M.
  • πŸ“† February 26, 2023: Running back JaMycal Hasty was re-signed by the Jacksonville Jaguars.

If you want to be kept in the loop on all the latest and greatest Jaguars news, bookmark this page.

Key Contributors Toward Jaguars Playoff Chances

The Jaguars' playoff chances heavily rely on the performance of key contributors, particularly quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence, with odds of +1500 to win the MVP, is expected to lead the team to success. The Jaguars' offensive arsenal, which includes players like Calvin Ridley, Travis Etienne, and Evan Engram, provides Lawrence with the weapons necessary to take the next step and build off a promising 2022 season.

The Jacksonville coaching staff also plays a crucial role in the Jaguars' playoff aspirations. Head coach Doug Pederson, a finalist for Coach of the Year last season, aims to guide the team to even greater heights this year. Pederson's leadership and strategic acumen will be instrumental in the Jaguars' quest for a playoff spot.

After recording 10 tackles, three for a loss, and a league-leading three sacks, Josh Allen (+10000 to win Defensive Player of the Year) is the leader on the defensive side of the ball. Allen will be crucial in the defense's overall success this year as a disruptive force coming off the edge.

Where Can I Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars to Make the Playoffs?

If you are looking to place a wager on the Jacksonville Jaguars' playoff chances, different sportsbooks offer various betting options. BetMGM sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook are among the platforms where you can place bets on the Jaguars' playoff aspirations. 

However, it is essential to note that sports betting regulations vary by state, and it is crucial to be aware of the legal requirements in your jurisdiction. For Florida sports fans, that unfortunately means legal sports betting is not yet available in the state.

Looking Ahead: Jaguars Playoff Picture

Staying updated on the latest developments is critical to understanding the team's current trajectory. Although the Jaguars' playoff chances saw a dip thanks to their Week 2 loss in combination with the Titans' win, Jacksonville is still a strong bet to make the postseason.

The Jaguars struggled on both sides of the ball against Kansas City but having that happen early on in the season should turn out to be a net positive in the long run. Jacksonville's offensive weapons still rank as some of the best in the league and this team will go as Trevor Lawrence goes.

The offensive line and defense have struggled early on and will certainly need to improve over the next several weeks if the Jaguars are going to make a deep playoff run and be considered legitimate Super Bowl contenders. 

As the league has shifted in recent years, we've seen teams with explosive offenses and average defenses find themselves in the final game of the season, and this is Jacksonville's best path forward.

Do the Jaguars Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

Yes, the Jaguars have a 69.2% chance of making the playoffs according to their latest odds of -225 on DraftKings Sportsbook. In a stacked AFC Conference, Jacksonville's best chance of making the 2023-2024 playoffs is by securing the AFC South title. 

There will be heavy competition for the three Wild Card spots from all of the other AFC divisions, so controlling their own destiny through the AFC South should be the Jaguars' main focus throughout the next several weeks.

Jacksonville will get another litmus test to see if they're truly ready to compete as there is a Week 5 matchup with the Buffalo Bills upcoming. 

Are the Jaguars Out of the Playoffs?

No, the Jaguars playoff hopes are still alive as the season is still in the beginning stages. There won't be any teams mathematically eliminated from playoff contention until much later in the season.

Where Do the Jaguars Rank in the AFC South?

Heading into Week 3, the Jacksonville Jaguars sit atop the AFC South thanks to a divisional win against Indianapolis to open the season. The Jags, Colts, and Titans all have a 1-1 record while the Texans are still searching for their first victory. If Jacksonville can take care of business in Week 3 against Houston, they will improve their AFC South outlook further.

In terms of betting odds, oddsmakers are looking at the Jaguars as the favorites for the AFC South with current odds of -145, which translated to implied probability, comes out to a 59.18% chance of winning the division.

Next up are the Tennessee Titans with a 29.41% chance at +240 odds, who saw their chances improve with a surprising victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2.

Although the Indianapolis Colts are technically second in the AFC South currently due to having a win inside the division whereas the Titans do not, they have longer odds than Tennessee at +700 (12.5% chance).

The Texans have to like what they've seen from rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, but at 0-2 and a weak overall roster, DraftKings gives them just a 7.14% chance of taking down the division with +1300 odds.

Where Do the Jaguars Rank in the AFC Playoff Standings?

If the playoffs were to start today, the Jaguars would be the three seed behind the Ravens and Dolphins, both of whom are 2-0 and have a divisional win under their belts. The Raiders currently hold the four seed thanks to a 1-1 record and divisional win over the Broncos in Week 1. The Raiders don't appear to be a realistic threat to AFC playoff standings, however, as they are currently third in AFC West odds (+1000) and are longshots to even make the playoffs at +300. 

Staying in control of the AFC South is Jacksonville's best chance of returning to the playoffs and should be the main focus of the franchise throughout the season.

Where Do the Jaguars Rank in the AFC Wild Card Race?

Right now, the Jags are projected to win the AFC South, which would keep them out of the Wild Card race. If the regular season were to end heading into Week 3, the Steelers, Jets, and Chiefs would be the three AFC Wild Card teams.

Can the Jaguars Get the No. 1 Seed?

Yes, the Jaguars have the potential to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but it is a challenging feat. With tough matchups against formidable opponents, including the Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens, securing the top seed would require a dominant performance throughout the season.

The Jaguars' schedule doesn't do them any favors, either, as they will play a first-place schedule which means facing off against teams who also finished first in their respective divisions.

Through the first two weeks, the Jaguars are in striking distance but assuming the Chiefs find themselves back in first place of the AFC West, they would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to their Week 2 victory over the Jags. If Kansas City were unable to regain control of their division, however, this would open up a massive opportunity for Jacksonville and give them a legitimate shot at the top spot in the AFC.

Who to Root for if You’re a Jaguars Fan

Going into Week 3, the Jaguars should be rooting for the Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, Washington Commanders, Indianapolis Colts, Chicago Bears, and Las Vegas Raiders to pull off wins in their respective matchups. Victories by these teams would either help in the Jaguars AFC South positioning or making a Wild Card path more viable. Cleveland takes on the Titans which would be huge for the AFC South race and although the Colts are divisional rivals, a win by Indianapolis would hand Baltimore their first loss of the season. Since the Jaguars already beat Indy, they would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker so a win against a non-divisional opponent wouldn't impact the Jags chances at this stage.


Jaguars Postseason Outlook and Predictions

The Jacksonville Jaguars are in an incredibly exciting position as they look ahead to the playoffs. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, they have a 69.2% chance of making the playoffs, a 59.1% chance of taking down the division, 6.67% shot at winning the AFC, and a 3.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl. While not currently carrying strong odds for the AFC or Super Bowl, continuing to build on last year's success and this season's early results could certainly improve their chances.

In order to do so, however, Trevor Lawrence will need to take the next step forward in his development as a franchise building block which isn't out of the question. Lawrence flourished under a new coaching staff last year and should continue to grow more comfortable in the new system with more time. With shaky offensive line play early on and inconsistent defensive result, even more pressure will be put on Lawrence and the Jags offensive weapons as they will almost certainly control the destiny of what happens going forward.

This new era of the franchise, with Doug Pederson as head coach, has already shown promise with their AFC South win in his first year. With the playoffs within reach and the potential for a division title, the Jaguars are certainly a team to watch and cheer for as they make their way through the playoff picture.

Jacksonville Jaguars Playoffs FAQs


Beau Adams is a tried-and-true disabled NFL enthusiast, Notre Dame alum, and ardent Jaguars’ aficionado with a deep passion for obscure statistical analysis. He'll use his love for the Jags and background in analytics as a betting expert for FloridaBet.com throughout the NFL season.

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