What are the Buccaneers Playoff Chances?
The Bucs' playoff chances improved from 32.3% to 47.6% after a win against the Falcons. Now, Tampa Bay sits just outside the odds, with Atlanta having a slightly better chance to win the division and the only path to the playoffs being through a division championship, even though they are the division leader currently.
The Bucs now control their destiny; and while the odds still say they sit outside of the playoffs, their odds of winning the division and conference increased drastically. Still, Tampa Bay's Super Bowl odds stayed the same at +15000.
We based the chances of the Bucs making the playoffs, winning the Super Bowl, and more based on implied probability. Implied probability takes the betting odds set by oddsmakers and converts them to a certain percentage of that event happening. Those odds are determined based on a player's or team's past performances, current roster make-up, schedule difficulty, injuries, and all other relevant information. Based on odds of +110 to make the playoffs, the Bucs have a 47.6% chance of qualifying to compete for the Lombardi Trophy.
The Bucs now sit tied with the Falcons at +170 odds to win the NFC South. Right behind them is the Saints at +200, a move up from third and a probability jump from 22.2% to 37%.
📆 Week 17: Bucs vs Saints Odds
Buccaneers Week-by-Week Playoff Chances
Here, I'll update the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' weekly playoff chances so we can track how they are changing throughout the season.
| Week | Bucs Playoff Chances |
| Week 1 | 21.7% |
| Week 2 | 31.7% |
| Week 3 | 42.6% |
| Week 4 | 43.5% |
| Week 5 | 57.4% |
| Week 6 | 54.5% |
| Week 7 | 50% |
| Week 8 | 42.6% |
| Week 9 | 33.3% |
| Week 10 | 28.6% |
| Week 11 | 29.2% |
| Week 12 | 35.1% |
| Week 13 | 27.8% |
| Week 14 | 32.3% |
| Week 15 | 47.6% |
A win over the Falcons was huge for the Bucs - for optics, for the division, and for their playoff chances. Now sitting in first place with the tiebreaking lead, the Bucs now control their destiny en route to their fourth straight playoff appearance.
The Bucs, with four games to go, face two likely playoff teams the Green Bay Packers and Jacksonville Jaguars, as well as face off against another team that shares the division lead the Saints, before finishing against the Carolina Panthers.
The Bucs' chances of winning the NFC South increased drastically from +350 to +170 with a win over the Falcons, and now sit tied for the lead to win the division with them. Before the Bucs win, the Falcons sat at -180 to win the division and make the playoffs.
📆 Week 18: Bucs vs Panthers Odds
Do the Buccaneers Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?
Yes, the Bucs have a chance to make the playoffs. The Bucs have a 47.6% chance to make the playoffs and are leading the NFC South currently, which would guarantee them the number four seed in the playoffs if they were to start today. The Bucs now have their best odds to make the playoffs since week seven.
Are the Buccaneers Out of the Playoffs?
No, the Bucs are not out of the playoffs but even though they are the division leaders, they do sit on the wrong side of the playoff race with just a 47.6% chance of competing in the playoffs for their fourth consecutive season. The Bucs' odds did increase from +210 to +110 after the win against the Falcons. They began the season at +360.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Chances: Key Updates April 2024
Below, I'll track all of the most important pieces of news and updates impacting the Buccaneers' playoff chances.
- 📅 December 12: The Bucs missed linebacker Devin White and defensive back Jamel Dean against the Falcons. Those two, along with defensive tackle Vita Vea, are all listed as questionable in their next game against Green Bay.
- 📅 December 5: Linebacker Lavonte David could return to action this week. Linebacker Devin White missed the game against Carolina due to illness and should be back this week. Reserve linebacker KJ Britt suffered a back injury and should not be expected to play.
- 📅 November 28: Free Safety Ryan Neal and Linebacker Lavonte David did not play in their loss to the Colts. Quarterback Baker Mayfield missed a few plays due to an ankle injury in the game, but did play the rest of the game and an MRI was positive for Mayfield.
- 📅 November 21: Free Safety Ryan Neal is dealing with a thumb issue still.
- 📅 November 14: Defensive Back Josh Hayes is dealing with a concussion and listed as OUT.
- 📅 November 7: Guard Matt Feiler and Defensive End Logan Hall are still listed as OUT and did not practice last week.
- 📅 November 5: Tampa Bay loses their fourth-straight game, this time in heartbreaking fashion to the Texans, 39-37.
- 📅 October 31: Defensive Tackle Vita Vea has not practiced this week and is listed as questionable this week. Safety Kaevon Merriweather and guard Matt Feiler are listed as out. Quarterback Baker Mayfield missed was limited in practice early in the week and is listed as questionable, but should play.
- 📅 October 24: Linebacker Anthony Nelson and defensive tackle Vita Vea are listed as questionable heading into their matchup against the Buffalo Bills.
- 📅 October 23: The Bucs are now 1-3 in their last four games following their loss to the Atlanta Falcons.
- 📅 October 15: Tampa Bay falls to the red-hot Detroit Lions 20-6 after they failed to get anything going offensively.
- 📅 October 10: The Bucs injury report no longer includes Mike Evans, but still lists cornerback Derrek Pitts, Calijah Kancy, Jamel Dean, and SirVocea Dennis.
- 📅 October 1: Wide Receiver Mike Evans suffered a minor hamstring injury - he is expected to recover during their bye week and be ready for week six against the Detroit Lions
- 📅 October 1: First-round draft pick Calijah Clancy is still dealing with a calf injury. A week six return is expected.
- 📅 September 25: The Bucs are dealt their first loss of the season on Monday Night Football, as the Eagles win in Tampa Bay, 25-11.
- 📅 September 17: Tampa Bay secures its second-straight victory to open the season, defeating the Chicago Bears 27-17.
- 📅 September 10: The Buccaneers go on the road to Minnesota and steal a victory, 20-17.
Bookmark this page, and we will consistently update it with the biggest updates throughout the season that could impact your betting chances.
Key Contributors Toward Bucs Playoff Chances
The biggest contributor towards the Bucs' playoff chances relies almost solely on offense and their ability to score points.
The Bucs' defense has been good enough this season to help them win football games, or at least, be in a position to win. Lavonte David, Devin White, Vita Vea, and Calijah Kancey have carried the front seven and rank 13th in the NFL in fewest points allowed. Allowing just 20.6 points per game on defense should not represent a 5-7 team, but alas, here we are. The Bucs will need to work on their passing defense over the next few weeks, as right now, they rank 27th in total defense, but their saving grace has been ranking 2nd in red zone defense.
On offense, I am reminded of this quote: "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." The offensive line has struggled at times, yes, but Baker Mayfield is pedestrian at best this season. The rushing attack stalls out many drives, and they cannot seem to get chunk plays to put themselves in a scoring position. However, it is worth noting that wide receiver Mike Evans has now totaled 1,000 yards receiving for the 10th straight year - the first NFL wide receiver to ever start a career with 10 straight seasons of 1,000+ yard receiving yards.
However, the biggest contributor to the Bucs' playoff chances might not even be the Bucs. The NFC South is once against the worst division in the NFL and the Bucs at 6-7, tied for first place (they do hold the tiebreaker). If the Bucs can figure out their offense, they still surprisingly stand a chance at making the playoffs.
Where Can I Bet on the Bucs to Make the Playoffs?
All major betting platforms allow you to bet on the Bucs making the playoffs, including operators like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars Sportsbook.
On October 6th, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia issued a mandate to restore the 2021 gaming compact, which would allow sports betting to become legal in Florida.
A month after giving specific users early access, on December 5, Hard Rock Bet announced that all Florida residents 21 or older can access their online sportsbook. Additionally, you can place bets in-person at Hard Rock Casino.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Picture and Predictions
After 13 weeks of the 2023 season, the Bucs sit a game out of first place in the NFC South at 5-7. Meanwhile, the Falcons are leading the division by a game at 6-6. The Bucs' only real chance to make the playoffs is by winning the division since the wild card race features teams with far better records.
While the NFC South continues to struggle, the Bucs could find a way to sneak into their fourth straight playoffs by winning the division. However, should that not happen (and the Bucs have three division games left), do not expect the Bucs to have a good enough record to make the playoffs.
The Bucs will need to beat the Panthers again and beat the Falcons, Saints, and Packers or Jaguars (who will now be without star quarterback Trevor Lawrence), and they could see themselves competing in their fourth straight playoff race.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoffs FAQs
The Bucs' playoff chances are +110 and -135 to miss the playoffs, which gives the Bucs a 47.6% chance to make the playoffs, up from 21.7% in the preseason, and the best odds they've had since week seven. If the Bucs make the playoffs this season, it will be their fourth consecutive season making the postseason.
No, the Bucs are currently not out of contention for the playoffs and, if the playoffs started today, they would be the fourth seed as NFC South division champions. The Bucs' only chance to make the playoffs, however, is through winning the division and rank second to last in overall NFC playoff odds of remaining teams available.
Yes, the Bucs are currently at a 47.6% chance odds of making the playoffs. The Bucs' odds to make the playoffs have improved for consecutive weeks for the first time since Week 5 following a road win over Atlanta.
Certain groups of bettors in Florida can now bet on the Buccaneers to make the playoffs at the Hard Rock Bet Florida app. Following an announcement in early December 2023, all qualified Florida residents can access the sportsbook and bet on Tampa Bay or any other NFL team.
Author
Dan Thompson is a Lead Betting Analyst for FloridaBet.com. Dan's unique experience makes him the perfect fit to find the latest storylines and interesting betting angles impacting Florida sports betting.
