Hill Trade Improves Miami Dolphins’ Odds of Winning Super Bowl 57

Hill Trade Improves Miami Dolphins’ Odds of Winning Super Bowl 57
By Marcus Mosher
Fact Checked by Ron Fritz

The NFL offseason never stops. Just days after All-Pro receiver Davante Adams was traded from the Packers to the Raiders, the Dolphins made one of the league’s most shocking moves. They have given up five picks (No. 29 and No. 50 included) for All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill, formerly of the Kansas City Chiefs.

The trade will help the Dolphins’ offense and it has already helped lower their Florida sports betting odds of winning Super Bowl 57.

Hill is one of the fastest players in NFL history, and he is also one of the most productive. He’s made the Pro Bowl in each of his first six seasons in the NFL and he’s been a three-time All-Pro selection. Since entering the league in 2016, Hill has totaled 7,349 yards from scrimmage and 62 touchdowns. He’s also a dynamic returner, scoring five special teams touchdowns on just 100 career returns.

During the 2021 season alone, Hill caught a career-high 111 passes for 1,239 yards and nine touchdowns. He also added another 100 yards on the ground as he was the top weapon for the Chiefs.

His speed and quickness are unlike anything we've ever seen in the NFL and he's just 28 years old. The Dolphins gave up a ton to get him, but this might be the most explosive and dangerous receiver we've seen in the last decade.

The Dolphins have now paired Hill with Jaylen Waddle, who might be the second-fastest player in the NFL. Waddle is coming off a strong season, catching 104 passes and scoring seven touchdowns as a rookie. As a result, the Dolphins now have one of the fastest wide receiver duos in NFL history and a really solid receiving corps, rounded out by tight end Mike Gesicki and wide receivers DeVante Parker and Cedrick Wilson.

Updated Super Bowl Odds

Buffalo Bills+650
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+750
Kansas City Chiefs+900
Green Bay Packers+950
Los Angeles Rams+1100
Denver Broncos+1400
San Francisco 49ers+1500
Dallas Cowboys+1600
Los Angeles Chargers+1600
Cleveland Browns+1700
Cincinnati Bengals+1800
Indianapolis Colts+2000
Baltimore Ravens+2200
Arizona Cardinals+2200
Tennessee Titans+2800
Miami Dolphins+3500

Dolphins Odds Improve Significantly

Did the trade impact the odds for the Dolphins heading into 2022? And do they have some sleeper appeal in the AFC? Let’s take a look at their current odds for next season via DraftKings Sportsbook:

The Dolphins currently have the 16th-best odds to win next year's Super Bowl at +3500. However, those odds are up significantly from earlier this week when they sat at +5000. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, their odds have even risen from +7000 to +4000 on some sites.

Miami is a better team now than it was a few days ago. However, the AFC is so deep that it's hard to envision the Dolphins getting to the Super Bowl. But if Tua Tagovailoa can make a giant leap in Year 3 under new head coach Mike McDaniel, maybe they are a worthy longshot bet.

It is worth mentioning that the Dolphins are coming off back-to-back winning seasons. While they haven’t made the playoffs since 2016, the overall roster is still very good. Despite the No. 22 scoring offense last season, the defense was able to keep them in games. If the offense can start living up to their potential, they aren’t a bad flier at 50-1.

Dolphins 2022-23 AFC Odds

The AFC is going to be as competitive as ever in 2022. However, with so many teams adding franchise quarterbacks (Broncos, Colts, Browns) on top of a few established teams (Chiefs, Bengals, Bills), it will be really tough for a team like the Dolphins to win the conference.

So despite how improved the roster looks this offseason, it’s why their odds to win the AFC are still relatively low. Since the Hill trade, they have moved from +3500 to +2000 for the conference. However, that is still only tied for ninth in the conference (Dolphins). This trade made the Dolphins a more serious playoff contender, but even that isn’t a given.

Hill should make the entire offense for the Dolphins better in 2022, but they will need Tagovailoa to blossom into a franchise-level quarterback if they want to compete with teams like the Bills, Chiefs and Bengals in the AFC.

Brady’s Return Boosts Bucs’ Odds

Elsewhere in Florida, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their fans are rejoicing over the return of quarterback Tom Brady. His announcement helped make the Bucs a Super Bowl betting favorite.

It is interesting to note that the Chiefs’ odds rose from +750 to +900 to win the Super Bowl. They could lower if K.C. finds a receiver to replace Hill, either in free agency or the NFL Draft.

That player could come from the state of Florida, which is among the favorites to have the most players drafted.

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Contributors

Marcus is a Senior Betting Analyst for FloridaBet.com. He studies all the top betting markets to pull out storylines that impact betting in Florida. Marcus has covered the NFL for The Raiders Wire, The Athletic DFW, Pro Football Weekly and FanSided, and previously wrote for FanRag Sports. He hosts Locked On Cowboys Podcast.

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