Tom Brady Return Boosts Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl Odds

Tom Brady Return Boosts Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl Odds
By Marcus Mosher
Fact Checked by Jim Tomlin

It only took 40 days for Tom Brady to end his retirement and announce his return to the NFL. Late on Sunday night, Brady announced via Twitter that he would return for the 23rd season of his career and play a third season for Tampa Bay. That decision had some massive ripple effects across the NFL. Oddsmakers took immediate note as the Buccaneers are once again a Super Bowl contender in the NFC, though there won’t be any Florida sports betting options available.

Brady is coming off one of the best seasons of his career; he threw for 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns in 2021. It was a career high in passing yards and his second-most TD passes in a single season. The Buccaneers had a 13-4 record before eventually falling to the Rams in the divisional round of the playoffs.

The Bucs appear to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender with Brady back under center. His return has already had a significant impact on the team as Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen re-signed with the team just hours before free agency began. So what can we expect from Brady and the Buccaneers this season? We take a look at how Tampa Bay stacks up compared to the rest of the teams in the NFL with Brady back on the field.

But before we take a look at the futures odds for the Buccaneers, let’s take a look at the 10 players with the best MVP odds across the NFL, including Brady, via DraftKings Sportsbook.


Tom Brady Among NFL MVP Odds Favorites

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills+700
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs+750
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers+800
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers+800
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers+1000
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals+1200
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos+1200
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys+1400
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams+1600
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals+1800

Tom Brady has the same odds as Aaron Rodgers (+800) after the Packers quarterback announced he would return for the 2022 season. Rodgers is coming off back-to-back MVP seasons and will try to match Brett Favre as the only player ever to win three straight MVP awards.

Brady is a three-time MVP winner himself, but his last win came during the 2017 season when he led the Patriots to a 13-3 record as he threw 32 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. So what would Brady need to do to win his fourth MVP award in 2022? He likely would need to surpass 5,000 passing yards again and throw over 40 touchdowns. Basically, put up the same numbers he did last year with Tampa Bay. But at +800, those are some pretty good odds for the greatest quarterback of all time. They improved from +2200 odds at some sites before his return.

Just a reminder, Florida sports betting is currently prohibited so there are no sports betting apps in Florida legally offering odds.

Super Bowl 57 Odds Favorites

Buffalo Bills+700
Kansas City Chiefs+750
Green Bay Packers+750
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+850
Los Angeles Rams+1100
Denver Broncos+1200
San Francisco 49ers+1300
Dallas Cowboys+1600
Los Angeles Chargers+2000
Baltimore Ravens+2200
Cincinnati Bengals+2200
Tennessee Titans+2200

With the news of Brady’s return, the Buccaneers now have the fourth-best odds to win the Super Bowl. A few days ago, their odds sat at +2200, which was the same as teams like the Titans and Patriots. These updated odds are definitely different from the Super Bowl futures odds posted in February, right after the Rams beat the Bengals last month to capture the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Those odds might have been inflated some in case Brady did return, but they were still outside of the top 10 teams in Super Bowl 57 wagering. Needless to say, the news of Brady’s return instantly makes the Buccaneers a Super Bowl contender in a conference void of many good teams.

Odds To Win NFC

Now that Brady is back, we know that the Buccaneers are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. But how do they stack up in the NFC in what is expected to be a down year? Here are the latest odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, which has the Bucs as co-favorites along with Green Bay as of Monday afternoon:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers+350
Green Bay Packers+350
Los Angeles Rams+450
San Francisco 49ers+600
Dallas Cowboys+750
Arizona Cardinals+1200
Minnesota Vikings+1800
Philadelphia Eagles+2000
New Orleans Saints+2200
Washington Commanders+2300
Atlanta Falcons+3300
Carolina Panthers+3400
Chicago Bears+3700
New York Giants+4400
Seattle Seahawks+4400
Detroit Lions+4400

Considering the Buccaneers won the conference in 2020 and nearly beat the Rams last year in the playoffs, they are an excellent bet at +350 to win it again. They have one of the best rosters in the conference and are in the NFC South, arguably the weakest division in the NFL. That should lead to an outstanding record (again) and a chance for them to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Just how bad is their division and how much are they favored to win it again? Let's take a look at the current odds for the NFC South, from DraftKings:


Odds To Win NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers-200
New Orleans Saints+350
Carolina Panthers+750
Atlanta Falcons+1000

Where the odds have really shifted after Brady's return was in the NFC South. Going into the weekend, the Buccaneers were still the favorites to win the division, but their odds sat at +110 on most sportsbooks. Now, those odds have shifted up to -200 and they are the heaviest divisional favorite in the entire NFL.

There was also a chance that sportsbooks were factoring in a potential return for Brady before his announcement and that's why the Buccaneers were still slightly favored. But now that he is back, it feels inevitable that the Buccaneers will win the division for a second consecutive season and host at least one home playoff game. And could Brady’s old buddy Rob Gronkowski decide to return to the Bucs as well?

Brady coming back for his 23rd season isn’t entirely unexpected. He was just too good last season and in the playoffs to not come back for one more year. And with the Buccaneers having one of the best rosters in the NFL, it made just too much sense for Brady.

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Contributors

Marcus is a Senior Betting Analyst for FloridaBet.com. He studies all the top betting markets to pull out storylines that impact betting in Florida. Marcus has covered the NFL for The Raiders Wire, The Athletic DFW, Pro Football Weekly and FanSided, and previously wrote for FanRag Sports. He hosts Locked On Cowboys Podcast.

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